Shock Poll: Trump Leads New Hampshire By 1 Point

Republican Presidential candidate Marco Rubio (R-FL) listens to New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, not pictured, after filing paperwork for the New Hampshire primary at the State House on November 5, 2015 in Concord, New Hampshire. Each candidate must file paperwork to be on the New Hampshire primary ballot, …
Scott Eisen/Getty Images

A new poll of New Hampshire Republicans finds Donald Trump still leading the crowded field, but by only 1 point.

The private poll was taken by Adrian Gray Consulting, and provided to Breitbart by a source, and is unaffiliated with any campaign or political organization. The poll also finds Florida Sen. Marco Rubio surging into second place, as well as significant movement from Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in third.

Trump is supported by 19 percent of likely Republican voters in the first primary state. Rubio is in second place — although the gap is within the poll’s margin of error — with 18 percent. Cruz is third, with 11 percent. Ben Carson is fourth with 9 percent and Jeb Bush and Chris Christie are tied for 5th, with 8 percent support each.

This latest poll, conducted December 6-8, was taken in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s controversial remarks about banning Muslim immigration. If the poll is accurate, it would represent a dramatic drop in Trump’s support and a surge in support for Rubio and Cruz.

In the most recent CNN poll, taken before Trump’s remarks on Muslims, he had 32 percent support in New Hampshire, followed distantly by Rubio with 14 percent. Cruz was in 5th with just 6 percent, behind Jeb Bush and John Kasich.

Among the most likely Republican voters, Rubio has opened up a 2-point lead over Trump in the Gray Consulting poll.

In the subset of the most likely voters, Rubio has 19 percent support, followed by Trump with 17 percent. Cruz and Bush are tied with 10 percent support.

It is important to note that the Gray poll could be an outlier, as even well-crafted polls can have wildly divergent results due to statistical quirks. The Gray poll, however, could also reflect the immediate fallout from Trump’s controversial remarks. If so, it would represent a pretty dramatic drop in Trump’s support in the early voting state.

It would also suggest that the race for the nomination in New Hampshire is wide open as 2016 nears.