Poll: Democrat Senate Candidate in Arizona Holds Double Digit Lead Over All Potential GOP Opponents

Kyrsten Sinema
Bill ClarkCQ Roll Call via Getty Images

An NBC News/Marist Poll released on Tuesday shows that Democrat candidate Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) holds a double digit lead over any of her three potential Republican challengers in the November general election to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) in the U.S. Senate.

“In Arizona, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is ahead of all three potential Republican opponents — Kelli Ward by ten points among registered voters (48 percent to 38 percent), Martha McSally by 11 points (49 percent to 38 percent) and Joe Arpaio by 25 points (57 percent to 32 percent),” NBC News reported on Tuesday.

The poll shows Rep. McSally (R-AX) has a slight two point lead in the August 28 Republican primary over Ward, 30 percent to 28 percent, with Arpaio in third place with 21 percent.

The two other polls conducted this month of the GOP Arizona Senate primary race that are included in the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls show a different picture of the Republican primary, with McSally leading Ward by 13 points in the Emerson Poll and 14 points in the OH Predictive Insights Poll.

“This primary contest is wide open,” Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, told NBC News.

“More than one-in-five potential GOP voters are undecided, and the total proportion of persuadable voters in this contest reaches 41 percent when those who might change their mind about their current choice are included,” Miringoff added.

Sinema faces no significant opposition in the August 28 Democratic primary.

Two other polls conducted this month of the Arizona Senate general election race that are included in the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls also show Sinema in the lead over all three potential GOP rivals, but by different margins.

The Emerson Poll and the CBS/YouGov Poll give Sinema an eight point lead over McSally. The CBS/YouGov Poll gives Sinema an eight point lead over Ward, but the Emerson Poll shows that lead at 17 points. Arpaio trails Sinema by a significant margin in both polls: by 24 points in the Emerson Poll and 20 points in the CBS/YouGovPoll.

“The NBC News/Marist poll of Arizona was conducted June 17-21 of 839 registered voters (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.5 percentage points) and 371 Republican primary voters (plus-minus 6.7 percentage points),” NBC News reported.

Unlike other recent polls on potential matchups in the general election for the U.S. Senate seat in Arizona this fall, the topline summary of the poll results released by NBC News/Marist Poll on Tuesday provided no details on the demographics and party affiliation of poll respondents, though additional information on the poll may be released later this week.

Republicans in Arizona may quibble about the methodology of the NBC News/Marist Poll released on Tuesday and the margin of Sinema’s advantage over her three potential GOP rivals in the fall.

With just a little more than four months until the November general election, however, one thing is clear: Republicans in the state will have their work cut out for them to keep the seat they currently hold from being snatched up by the Democrats this fall.

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