As pointed out in a new Gallup poll revealing Obama’s disastrous approval numbers in Iowa, the state has played a unique roll in his political career.
Now it seems they’ve turned on him, even more so than the rest of the country. To the extent that impact theIowa senate race between Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst, it could be pivotal in derailing his second term agenda by handing control over to the GOP.
Further complicating matters for Braley is the surge in Republican identification in Iowa since 2008, as measured by self-reported party affiliation and independents who report “leaning” toward the GOP.
While the percentage of national adults identifying as or leaning Republican was two percentage points higher in the first half of 2014 than in 2008 (39% vs. 37%, respectively), it was six points higher among Iowans (40% vs. 34%).
Ultimately, if Iowa remains an early predictor regarding Obama and the rest of the nation follows its lead, he could turn out to be the best friend the Republican party has both in the mid-terms and in the run up to 2016.