Why is the GOP Wave Suddenly Not A Wave?

If you follow election coverage as I do, a funny thing seems to have happened as we move from Summer into the Fall and on toward the November mid-terms. Suddenly, media outlet after media outlet is talking about the lack of a Republican wave.

THE NON-WAVE ELECTIONIn the battle for control of the U.S. Senate, what’s most remarkable is how little has changed over the summer.

The thing is, almost all of these media outlets were predicting that the GOP may well take the Senate in the Fall – and that hasn’t changed a bit, according to them. But suddenly it’s not a wave? One has to wonder how much of that has to do with any genuine  analysis versus Democrats being successful at selling their talking points.

It seems to go something like this: Well, the GOP hasn’t expanded it’s advantage over the Summer and still only expects to make real gains in the House and Senate. 

Seriously? How is that not a wave election?

The other issue you won’t find discussed much in these broader analysis pieces is how immigration – even as Barack Obama continues to talk about takign executive action in that area.

In race after race, from New Hampshire to North Carolina and almost everywhere else, the border crisis emerged as a major campaign issue over the Summer. Yet, according to first tier analyst Charlie Cook nothing has changed. Really?

Now that Labor Day is behind us, the most remarkable thing about this midterm election is how little has changed since Memorial Day. In the closest and most crucial contest, for control of the U.S. Senate, only the race in Kansas looks fundamentally different than it did three months ago.

In all candor and while trying to be as objective as I possibly can be under the circumstances, if anything has changed recently, it’s that the media looks to be trying to play down the political significance of the on going border crisis and the GOP’s clear advantage going into the Fall. 

But then, now that I think about it, maybe the media is right … and that doesn’t represent much of a change at all.


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