Talk radio host Mark Levin, who has endorsed Republican presidential candidate Texas Senator Ted Cruz, said that while Cruz “will have a tough fight here” a strong performance by GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump in the 5 April 26 GOP primaries would not end the race, rather it’s just supporters of his who “want it to be over after tonight” during a primary preview that took place before the results started rolling in on Tuesday.
Levin predicted that there would be “24/7, particularly on the Fox News Channel, ‘Trump had a massive victory. Trump’s unstoppable.'” He further criticized calls from Trump “and his big mouths” for Cruz to get out and the lack of context given to polling questions on whether the candidate with the most delegates should win the nomination if no one gets a majority of the delegates, pointing out that if this was done in 1860, Abraham Lincoln wouldn’t have been the GOP nominee, and suggesting that this would possibly cause people to have a different opinion.
He further stated that Trump was hoping for 40% of the popular vote, and 50% plus 1 of the delegates, which would be a contradiction the clamoring for democracy from Trump’s supporters.
Levin then read from a piece by pollster Scott Rasmussen that said that while Trump would do well in that day’s primaries, well enough to win somewhere between 98 and 123 of the 172 delegates up for grabs in that day’s primary, “because such a great performance is already built into projections, winning these delegates will not increase Trump’s chances of wrapping up the nomination.” He further read Rasmussen’s estimate that Trump “could end up with just enough delegates to secure the nomination. He could also fall [about] 140 delegates short.” Levin continued reading from Rasmussen, “The only news on Tuesday that would significantly alter that assessment would be if the frontrunner has a surprisingly bad night and earns less than 98 delegates. I can’t imagine that happening. If it does, however, Trump’s chances of winning the nomination would decline significantly.”
Levin further predicted that Trump would not win any of the states holding their primaries on Tuesday in general election if he ends up being the nominee. After reading from Rasmussen’s article that, “the race for the Republican nomination will be determined by the 10 races left after Tuesday’s competition.” Levin argued, “This is precisely why Drudge, and Gateway, and the Fox guys say after tonight, it’s over. They want it to be over after tonight.”
He continued that Indiana was “crucial,” and if Cruz loses Indiana, “in terms of delegates,” he would have a “tough time.” He then read more of the Rasmussen article, which emphasized the importance of Indiana’s primary.
Levin then quoted Rasmussen’s line, “The very process that Trump claims is rigged against him will once again work to his benefit.” He then read Rasmussen’s reasoning that “three of the five states are either a winner-take-all contest (Delaware) or a winner-take-all by Congressional District approach (Connecticut, Maryland). Trump may win all 82 delegates in these states. At the low end of expectations, he could lose one to three Congressional Districts costing him three to nine delegates. On top of that, Trump can probably count on the 17 Pennsylvania delegates awarded to the statewide winner. In Rhode Island, delegates are awarded proportionally. So, if Trump gets roughly half the vote, he’ll get roughly half of it’s 19 delegates. … When you add it all up, Trump is likely to win less than 50 percent of the vote [on Tuesday], but end up with between 57 percent and 72 percent of the delegates.”
After reading the conclusion of Rasmussen’s piece that “The key to understanding the Northeastern primary day is remembering that it probably won’t tell us much more than we already know. The real action will take place in the 10 states that vote after today.” And stating that Cruz will “have a tough fight here. I mean, if you’re a betting man, you would bet on the guy who’s in the lead, right? But the guy who’s in the lead still needs to finish.”
(h/t Conservative Review)
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