On Tuesday’s broadcast of CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard University and the Harvard Kennedy School Jason Furman, who served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama and on the Council of Economic Advisers and the National Economic Council under President Bill Clinton, stated that the inflation issue won’t go away anytime soon, he doesn’t see inflation going “much below 3% this year. I don’t see it coming down below that without a decent-sized recession.” And there’s nothing in the January CPI that makes him feel good, especially when you consider the core inflation figure comes with “some special things that were helping” that you can’t rely on continuing.
Furman said, “I think the markets are just ridiculously complacent about the inflation situation right now. I look at tips, I look at swaps, they have break-evens of inflation of around 2%. I just don’t see that. I don’t see how we have inflation much below 3% this year. I don’t see it coming down below that without a decent-sized recession. And nothing in this number gives me comfort. Yeah, it’s not a surprise relative to the expectations we had yesterday, but compared to the narrative we had a month ago, where we thought inflation was coming down, where we thought it was jumping off from a low point, we now have core this month at an annualized rate just for the month of January of 5.1%, even if you take out shelter which has lagged and the used cars, the so-called super core, you’re at an annual rate of 4.3% for this month. That’s faster than the pace in the last two months. And that is with some special things that were helping. Used cars, we got more relief there than we were expecting to, medical services also fell. Those aren’t things you can count on continuing to happen. So, I think this inflation issue is real, I don’t think it’s going away anytime soon, and I think anyone who’s overly calm about it is making me nervous.”
Furman also stated, “Look, we had an inflation rate at 9%. It’s come down to 6.4. 6.4 is incredibly high. No one ever thought that 9% was going to last.” And “6% inflation is a lot higher than most of us thought it would be at this point in time. That it’s come down from 9 doesn’t comfort me.”
Follow Ian Hanchett on Twitter @IanHanchett
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