U.S. households expect the Republican Party will win control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, according to a survey of consumers from the University of Michigan.
The survey, conducted by the same outfit that measures one of the most widely followed measures of consumer sentiment, did not ask consumers which party they favored. Instead, it asked which party they expected to win.
Republicans came out ahead by significant margins among consumers across all income, education, and age groups.
Fifty-four percent said they expect Republicans to take the House and just 36 percent said they expect Democrats to retain control, giving the GOP an 18 percent lead. Joanne Hsu, the director of the University of Michigan’s consumer survey, said that a difference of 10 or more is a “highly significant difference.”
Republicans have an eleven-point lead when it comes to the Senate, with 50 percent of consumers saying they expect Republicans to win control and 39 percent saying they expect Democrats to maintain their control.
Republicans have the advantage with every age group. Among consumers between 18 and 34, Republicans lead by seven when it comes to the House and Senate. With 35 to 54-year-olds, the GOP lead is 23 points for the House and 17 for the Senate. With older consumers, the balance is 20 points in favor of the GOP for the House and eight points for the Senate.
When it comes to the House, the Republicans have just a four-point lead among households in the bottom third of incomes. Among the middle third, the GOP lead expands to 27 points. In the top third, it is 20 points. For the Senate, the balance is seven points for the GOP among the bottom third and top third, and 17 for the middle.
Fifty-six percent of consumers with a college degree expect the GOP to win the House and just 36 percent expected Democrats to hold onto control, giving Republicans a 20-point lead. For the Senate, college graduates give Republicans a seven-point lead. Among those with some college, Republicans have a 17-point advantage for the House and a 14-point advantage for the Senate. For consumers with a high school degree or less educational attainment, Republicans have a 15-point advantage in the House and a 17-point advantage in the Senate.
Democrats do have the lead among Democrats, of course. Sixty-five percent of Democrats say they think Democrats will control each of the House and the Senate, with just 29 percent saying they expect Republican control. Republicans, however, are more confident. Seventy-seven percent of Republicans expect the GOP will win control of the house and 73 percent expect their party to win control of the Senate. Only 18 percent on Republicans expect the Democrats to control the House and 22 percent expect Democrats to control the Senate.
Among independents, Republicans have a 24-point lead for control of the House and a 16-point lead for the Senate. Thirty-three percent of independents expect Democrats to control the House versus 57 percent who expect GOP control. For the Senate, 36 percent of independents expect Democrat control and 52 percent expect GOP control.
Republicans also lead on the question of which party will be better for the national economy and for personal finances. Among all households, 37 percent say Republicans are better for the national economy and 21 percent say the Democrats are better. Thirty-seven percent say it makes no difference. For personal finances, thirty-five percent say Republicans are better and 20 percent say Democrats are better. Forty-one percent say it makes no difference.
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