Economists and Most Americans Agree: Biden’s Economy Is Going to Get Worse Next Year

The outlook of Americans on the economy has turned increasingly pessimistic, mirroring the view of economists who see less growth next year.

Back in January, when asked by pollsters for the Economist/YouGov survey whether they thought the economy was getting better or worse, half of Americans chose worse. Around 18 percent said they thought it was getting better. Twenty-four percent said it was staying the same. Nine percent said they weren’t sure.

In the most recent Economist/YouGov poll the share saying the economy was getting rose was 54 percent. The share saying it was getting better was 17 percent. The share saying it was staying the same was 22 percent.

The shift upward in the share saying the economy is getting worse occurred sometime in late spring and early summer. From February through May, the share of people seeing the economy worsening ranged from a high of 49 percent in February to a low of 45 percent in April. Since June, the share has never fallen below 51 percent.

Economists now see that this year’s economy is likely to be better than they expected—but they are forecasting less growth for next year. Back in January, a Wall Street Journal poll of economists found that they expected the economy to grow just 0.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023. The October poll found economists now expect 2.3 percent growth this year.

The forecast for GDP next year, however, has moved in the opposite direction. Economists in the October poll forecast the economy growing just one percent next year. Back in January, they were forecasting 1.9 percent growth for 2024. This suggests that many economists agree with the public’s view that the economy is getting worse rather than better despite the recent better-than-expected performance.

The results of these polls could spell political trouble for President Joe Biden, who has been hoping to sell Americans on the idea that the recent good economic news is the result of something the president calls “Bidenomics.”