A closely watched measure of forward-looking economic data fell again in November—a warning sign that the economy could slump next year.
The Conference Board said its Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.5 percent last month, following a one percent decline in October.
The LEI declined by 3.5 percent over the six-month period between May and November 2023, a slower pace of contraction than recorded in the previous six months.
“The US LEI continued declining in November, with stock prices making virtually the only positive contribution to the index in the month,” said the Conference Board’s Justyna Zabinska-La Monica. “Housing and labor market indicators weakened in November, reflecting warning areas for the economy.”
The Conference Board said it expects a shallow recession in the first half of 2024.
While the leading indicators continue to indicate weakness, the Conference Board’s measure of current indicators strengthened. All four of the major components—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production— of the Current Economic Index (CEI) were positive in November.
Over the past six months, the CEI has increased one percent, better than the 0.7 growth in the previous six months.
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