Consumers spent less at retail stores in January but it was not because they were feeling worse about the economy and its prospects.
The University of Michigan’s preliminary read of the economic mood of Americans in February showed Friday that consumer sentiment held the past two months of gains. The consumer sentiment index climbed slightly to 79.6 from the January reading of 79.
“Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged from January, rising 0.6 index points this month and solidifying the large gains from the past two months,” said the director of the survey, Joanne Hsu. “The fact that sentiment lost no ground this month suggests that consumers continue to feel more assured about the economy, confirming the considerable improvements in December and January across various aspects of the economy.”
Sentiment has been boosted by confidence that inflation will continue to decline and the labor market will remain solid.
Recent economic data may shake half of that foundation, however. While the labor market remains strong, adding 353,000 jobs in January and holding the unemployment rate at 3.7 percent, the downturn in inflation seen last year is now in doubt. The consumer price index, the producer price index, and a gauge of import prices all indicated a bigger than expected surge in inflation.
There was a slight uptick in inflation expectations in February, with consumers expecting inflation to run at three percent in the year ahead, up from 2.9 percent a month earlier.
Long-run inflation expectations remained at 2.9 percent for the third straight month, staying within the narrow 2.9 to 3.1 percent range for 28 of the last 31 months. While it is somewhat reassuring the long-run expectations are not rising, there’s also reason to be cautious about the fact that they appear stuck at an elevated level. Long-run inflation expectations ran between 2.2 to 2.6 percent in the two years pre-pandemic.
In a separate report this week, the Commerce Department said that retail sales declined sharply in January compared with the previous month. Sales were down at car dealerships, gas stations, appliance and electronic stores, online stores, and home improvement centers. Sales rose at grocery stores, restaurants, and department stores.
COMMENTS
Please let us know if you're having issues with commenting.