Here we go. The moment of truth has arrived. Within a few weeks we will at long last know the answer to the question everyone’s been asking since the movie exhibition business all but shut down for a year: Is America ready to go back to the movies?
How do we know we’re about to know? Well, reviews are already seeping out for two tentpole features: A Quiet Place Part II and F9, the latest installment in the gajillion dollar Fast & Furious franchise. This tells me it’s happening. The summer movie season is officially on.
A Quiet Place II hits theaters May 28, F9 arrives June 25, and presale tickets are already available for the latest Conjuring sequel (June 4), as well as Cruella (May 28), Disney’s latest reimagining of its 101 Dalmatians. Disney is also juicing up its promotion for Black Widow (July 9), its latest Marvel entry. So…
Barring an unforeseen catastrophe, it looks like we are a go.
The only question is whether or not Americans are as eager to return to normal as Hollywood is.
Early indications are mixed.
Everyone was pretty excited when Godzilla vs. Kong opened to $31.6 million domestic all the way back on March 31, but it still hasn’t crossed $100 million domestic. Is that because the very few people who want to get back to movie-going were frontloaded, or is that because the movie just isn’t very good?
We don’t know, and nothing since has helped answer that question.
On April 23, Mortal Kombat opened to a pretty respectable $23.3 million and has since stalled out at just $40 million. What does that tell us? We don’t know.
The latest edition of the Saw franchise, Spiral, was expected to open in the $11 million to $20 million range, instead it faltered with just $8.7 million. Angelina Jolie’s thriller, Those Who Wish Me Dead, got itself massacred this last weekend. Projected to underperform with a $4 to $5 million opening, it hit a disastrous $2.8 million.
Everything released of late has either been a mix of good and bad news (solid opening weekend followed by a box office dive) or just bad (dead on arrival).
One piece of good news for Hollywood is the CDC finally caved to the science last week and put an end to most of its anti-science mask mandates and social distancing requirements, at least for those of us who are fully vaccinated — which probably means most everyone. It’s pretty hard for me to see someone who refuses to get vaccinated agreeing to put on a mask.
Either way, not having to wear a mask in a theater is a big incentive.
The bad news, however, is that, inexplicably, the CDC has still not lifted the mask mandate for kids under 12. How many kids want to sit through a movie in a mask that stinks of stale popcorn?
The question also remains as to whether or not the major theater chains will themselves remove their mask requirements. As much as I’m looking forward to returning to the movies, there’s no way I’m wearing a mask.
Then there are the sociological questions… A lot can change in a year, especially for young people — their habits, their likes and dislikes; what’s in, what’s out, what’s cool, what’s stale… Did a year without movie theaters push them into other forms of distraction? Did they discover movies aren’t as important as they once believed?
Last year was also Hollywood’s worst year politically. The industry became insufferable with all this woke garbage that has, without question, turned off millions of Americans. Look at the anemic, record-low ratings for every single award show, including the Oscars. What will this ongoing PR disaster do to movie attendance?
Another question…
Are people more germaphobic now? After a year of stressing over hand-washing and believing your fellow man was the carrier of something deadly, how eager will we be to return to dark theaters full of people, sticky floors, and musty seats?
Finally, within 45 days of its theatrical release, A Quiet Place Part II will be available on Paramount’s streaming service. The upcoming Conjuring sequel hits HBOMax the same day it hits theaters. With the theatrical window collapsing, why go to the theater?
Right now, we just don’t have the answers… The tea leaves are far from clear. But we’re finally going to know in a few weeks because there’s no way to dismiss these upcoming titles should they falter.
Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC. Follow his Facebook Page here.
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