7-Day Average of Coronavirus Cases Drops Below 50K for First Time Since Early July

Lab technicians dedicated to the vaccines formulation, wearing Personal Protective Equipme
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Edwin Mora

The seven-day rolling average of new coronavirus infections in the United States, a key metric for gauging the severity of the disease, dropped below 50,000 on Tuesday for the first time since early July, data from the COVID Tracking Project and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) revealed.

Key metrics are trending downward as Democrats continue to slam President Donald Trump’s handling of the virus during the Democrat National Committee (DNC) convention that began on Monday. Average new cases continued to drop on Wednesday, reportedly standing at around 47,000:

While the United States has reported an average of more than 1,000 new deaths since late last month, Johns Hopkins predicted in its situation report Wednesday that the fatalities might begin to drop in the “near future,” reflecting the decline in infections.

For nearly two weeks, new hospitalizations, including their average tally, have been steadily falling, data from the COVID Tracking Project showed.

Analysts present rates as rolling averages to account for abnormalities in the day-to-day data. There is a patchwork of guidelines for reporting coronavirus data across the United States, with some analysts reporting probable fatalities and infections while others do not, resulting in different, yet similar tallies by Johns Hopkins, the CDC, and the tracking project.

On August 19, the U.S. reported over 45,000 new cases, about 1,400 deaths, and nearly 43,300 hospitalizations. Those numbers came from the COVID Tracking Project, the first source mentioned in this report to update its data as of Wednesday evening:

For the most part, the United States has been reporting fewer infections on average since the second spike in cases that began in early June peaked in late July, data provided by several sources including Johns Hopkins revealed.

As of Tuesday, daily new cases had remained below 50,000 for at least three days in a row, according to CDC, the tracking project, and Johns Hopkins, among other sources.

That trend appears to be holding based on the update from the tracking project.

“The U.S. epidemic passed its second peak around July 24, and since then, the national COVID-19 incidence has decreased steadily,” Johns Hopkins University acknowledged on Wednesday. “While many states are exhibiting similar trends, case counts in some states continue to climb.”

The seven-day average of the second spike in new daily deaths that began in early July plateaued at over 1,000 later that month and has remained at that level:

During the second spike, new daily deaths have remained well below the peak level of over 2,000.

On Wednesday, Johns Hopkins predicted that there might be a decline in daily fatalities in the horizon, noting:

With the peak in national daily incidence occurring approximately three weeks ago, we expect to see an associated decrease in daily mortality in the near future.

Mortality tends to lag several weeks behind incidence [infections], as it takes time for COVID-19 [coronavirus disease] patients to progress through the course of disease. Nationally, the US continues to average more than 1,000 new deaths per day. Multiple states are reporting overall increases in daily mortality, including several states that were severely affected during the summer resurgence.

After a brief increase, the seven-day average of new tests is once again going down:

Nevertheless, the U.S. reported over 680,000 tests on Wednesday, up from more than 640,000 the previous day, the tracking project reported. On average, the United States has reportedly recorded nearly 750,000 new tests each day over the last week. Tests positivity rates also seem to be improving.

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