A new poll from Berkeley’s Institute of Government Studies suggests that no Republicans will make it onto the ballot for the key races in the 2018 general election in the deep blue state of California.
According to the poll, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, both Democrats, are the two most likely candidates to make it past the June top-two or “jungle” primary, which allows the top-two vote-getters to proceed regardless of political party.
Newsom leads Villaraigosa by 9 points, with 26 percent support among likely voters. The other Democratic candidates are State Treasurer John Chiang and former Schools Superintendent Delaine Eastin, each of whom has just 5 percent. The two Republicans in the race, Assemblyman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) and wealthy businessman John Cox, are doing better than Chiang and Eastin, with 9 percent each among likely voters.
Twenty-eight percent of likely voters are still undecided.
The poll also found that Newsom fares better among conservatives and voters with incomes over $100,000, while Villaraigosa is stronger among Latinos and voters with household incomes less than $40,000 a year.
In October, Villaraigosa released a 12-minute campaign video, in which he spoke in Spanish, with English subtitles, revealing that his game plan for attempting to defeat Newsom will be focused on turning out Latino and working-class voters. Despite his support among the Hispanic population, it still might not be enough to push him past Newsom, who has more support among moderates and liberals.
Newsom also leads Villaraigosa slightly among African-American and Asian voters. Both men are tied at 25 percent among millennial voters.
Meanwhile, in the Senate race, incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) leads State Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León (D-Los Angeles). Feinstein has 41 percent support among likely voters, while de Leoón has just 27 percent.
“For her to be only polling 41 against someone unknown to most voters is a little surprising, and I think weaker than I would have expected,” the director of the poll, Mark DiCamillo told KQED.