Poll: Independents Fuel Republican Bid to Recapture Congress

Support from unaffiliated voters is propelling Republicans’ bid to reclaim both the House and Senate in November, a new Rasmussen Reports poll found.

When likely U.S. voters were asked who they would vote for if elections were held today, 48 percent said a Republican candidate, 39 percent said a Democrat candidate, and just four percent said some other candidate. Nine percent were unsure.

Rasmussen Reports said the Republican lead is “due to both a greater GOP partisan intensity and a 17-point advantage among independents.”

“While 86 percent of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, only 78 percent of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate,” according to the poll. “Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 44 percent would vote Republican and 27 percent would vote Democrat, while 10 percent would vote for some other candidate and 19 percent are undecided.”

The pollster, which updates its Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly, noted Republicans gained one point since the week prior (48 percent to 40 percent) and have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year. 

Republicans garnered support from 55 percent of white respondents, 26 percent from black voters, and 39 percent from other minorities. Thirty-four percent of white voters, 59 percent of black voters, and 42 percent of other minorities said they would vote Democrat.

Republicans were also able to close the gap in support between men (50 percent) and women (47 percent) from six points to three points since the previous week. Two weeks prior, the gap was nine points.

While voters under 40 tend to skew to the left, 46 percent to 35 percent, 53 percent of voters ages 40-64 and 58 percent of people 65 and older would vote for a GOP candidate if the elections were held today.

By income bracket, Republicans were most popular with voters who earn between $30,000 and $50,000, 52 percent to 34 percent. The GOP lead among voters with incomes between $50,000 to $100,000 was only one point (45 percent to 44 percent).

The survey was conducted with 2,500 respondents on June 5-9 and has a margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.