Analysis Projects GOP to Retake Majority in House After Midterms

People cast their ballots in voting booths at the 2nd Street Elementary School in the Boyle Heights neighborhood of Los Angeles, California on November 6, 2018 as Americans across the country cast their votes for the mid-term elections. - Americans started voting Tuesday in critical midterm elections that mark the …
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Analysts at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics released an analysis on Wednesday, less than two weeks before the midterms, stating that the Republicans will regain the majority in the House.

“We now rate 218 House seats — the magic number for winning a majority — as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings,” the Center for Politics’ Kyle Kondik said in his analysis on Wednesday, meaning if the analysis is correct, GOP candidates will win the number of seats needed for the majority.

“A large number of races remain close and competitive. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up breaking disproportionately to the Republicans,” Kondik added.

He explained that four House seats that were rated “toss-up” had been moved to “lean Republican” this week, making the total number of seats that rated to at least “lean” toward the GOP candidate to 218, which is the number needed for a majority in the House.

There are currently only 195 seats that are rated at least “lean Democrat,” while 22 remain as a “toss-up” two weeks before the election. Kondik explained that if the “toss-up” seats split evenly 11-11, it would give Republicans a net gain of 16 seats, ultimately a total of 229 seats for the Republicans.

But, Kondik explained that the Center for Politics “suspect the Republicans will do better than just a split in the Toss-ups, so our updated forecast is a GOP gain in the high teens or low 20s.”

Additionally, with the election only two weeks away and much on the line for in both the House and the Senate in November, a Republican candidate currently leads on the generic ballot.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans are trying to take back the majority and unseat Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) from her speakership. To achieve this, the Republicans need to net five seats.

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In 2018, the Democrats took the House from the Republicans. In 2020, after striving to win back the House, the Republicans left the Democrats with the slimmest majority in modern history and, setting themselves up for the upper hand in the midterms.

For Republicans, winning the majority will require a net gain of only five seats in November, and much is on the line in both the House and the Senate. Republicans winning either one could mean the Democrats and Biden will have more difficulty passing their agenda items before the next presidential election.

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. Write to him at or follow him on Twitter @JacobMBliss.


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