Poll: Gen. Don Bolduc Expands Lead over Democrat Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire’s Senate Race

Republican senate nominee Don Bolduc speaks during a campaign event on October 15, 2022 in
Scott Eisen/Getty Images

Republicans Senate candidate Gen. Don Bolduc expanded his lead over Democrat Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) in New Hampshire, according to a Thursday Trafalgar Group poll.

Forty-seven percent support Bolduc, 45.7 percent back Hassan, and 3.2 percent are undecided. Libertarian Jeremy Kauffman has 4 percent.

Among Hispanics, Bolduc leads 70.2 – 17.7 percent over Hassan. Among black voters, Hassan only holds a 19.9-point lead (34.7 – 54.6 percent). Among white voters, Bolduc leads (46.9 – 46.4 percent).

The general also polled better than Hassan in every age demographic except 65 and older, likely because of her history as a former governor of the Granite State.

The survey sampled 2022 general election voters from October 30 through November 1, with a 2.9 percent margin of error. Respondents included 44 percent Democrat, 35 percent Republican, and 21 percent unaffiliated.

The poll comes after a Tuesday Saint Anselm survey revealed that showed Bolduc with a one-point lead over Hassan. The general has clawed his way into the one-point lead, a gain of 12 points in just six weeks after Hassan had an 11-point lead.

New Hampshire does not have early voting, only absentee ballots for specific reasons, which indicates that Bolduc’s momentum heading into Tuesday’s election translates into one of the biggest political upsets in the 2022 cycle.

A Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll four weeks ago showed Hassan with a nine-point lead (50-41 percent) over Bolduc. That lead was cut to seven points (52-45 percent) in an October 12 AARP poll. Both polls showed Hassan with majority support. On October 21, a Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll showed Bolduc had tied the race (45-45 percent), with seven percent undecided.

DOVER, NH - SEPTEMBER 10: Incumbent Democratic Senate candidate, U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) speaks during a campaign canvas kickoff event on September 10, 2022 in Dover, New Hampshire. Hassan is running for Senate reelection this year in New Hampshire and her Republican opponent will be chosen in the upcoming GOP primary. (Photo by Scott Eisen/Getty Images)

Incumbent Democrat Senate candidate Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) speaks during a campaign canvas kickoff event on September 10, 2022, in Dover, New Hampshire (Photo by Scott Eisen/Getty Images). Republican Senate nominee Don Bolduc speaks during a campaign event on October 15, 2022, in Derry, New Hampshire (Photo by Scott Eisen/Getty Images).

RealClearPolitics forecasted on Monday that seven Senate races are tossups: New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Washington State, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. RealClearPolitics has since moved New Hampshire to a GOP pickup.

To retake the Senate with a one-seat majority, Republicans need to hold Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and retake either Arizona, Nevada, Washington State, New Hampshire, or Georgia.

Follow Wendell Husebø on Twitter @WendellHusebø. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality.


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