Skopje (AFP) – He took down a strongman, survived a bloody mob attack and won global plaudits for signing a historic accord with Greece.
But Sunday’s referendum will be the true test of Macedonia premier Zoran Zaev’s budding reputation as a deal-maker — and rare optimist — in a region of frozen conflicts.
The 43-year-old has become a darling of the West for pushing through a painful compromise with Greece in June to change his country’s name to “North Macedonia.”
Athens, who has snubbed its Balkan neighbour for 27 years because it has its own province called Macedonia, has promised to stop blocking Skopje’s path to NATO and the EU if the new name is accepted.
Zaev is imploring voters to greenlight the name on Sunday, warning that anything short of a majority will crush Macedonia’s dreams of a Euro-Atlantic future.
It could also draw the curtain on Zaev’s own political career.
The former businessman, whose unlikely rise has fuelled his unrelenting optimism, has said he would resign if the deal crumbles.
“I am so strongly convinced that the referendum will succeed that I’m not even looking into other options,” Zaev, a devout Orthodox Christian, told AFP this month.
– Pepper relish and politics –
Zaev was born in 1974 in the eastern city of Strumica, making him an outlier in a party whose powerbrokers hailed from the capital.
“I personally never imagined that he would succeed, although I always thought (the party) were unfair to him and other non-Skopje residents,” said a member of the Social Democrats’ executive committee who requested anonymity.
Zaev began his career by working for a family-run business selling jars of ajvar — a pepper relish beloved in the Balkans.
He switched to politics in 2003, eventually becoming a three-term mayor of his hometown and leader of the Social Democrats in 2013.
But Zaev didn’t hit international headlines until 2015, when he started releasing tapes that appeared to show widespread official wiretapping under premier Nikola Gruevski, the Macedonian strongman who had dug in for a decade.
The scandal led to Gruevksi’s undoing and plunged Macedonia into a political crisis.
It came to a head in April 2017 when a nationalist mob stormed parliament to protest Zaev’s coalition deal with ethnic Albanian parties.
The intruders injured scores, including Zaev, who was photographed with blood splattered across his face and collared shirt.
“Bloody Thursday” was a turning point for the country and for Zaev, eventually allowing him to take his post as premier.
Since then he has tried to bring his business acumen to politics, striking deals with neighbours and clearing Macedonia’s path to the EU.
“He’s a workaholic,” said David Stephenson, a political consultant in Macedonia and former US diplomat, describing how Zaev slept in the party’s Skopje headquarters for several years before becoming Prime Minister.
“He’s not someone who most people would consider intellectual or book smart, but I think he’s very savvy and shrewd, and I think he reads people well.”
– Making a name –
In August 2017 Zaev inked a friendship treaty with Bulgaria, another neighbour that has sparred with Macedonia over identity, history and language.
Next came the big prize — the name row with Greece, one of several major unresolved conflicts hampering progress in Western Balkans, a region scarred by the calamitous breakup of Yugoslavia.
Zaev began with a series of goodwill gestures, including removing the name “Alexander the Great” — a hero claimed by both countries — from an airport and highway.
Meetings and phone calls with his Greek counterpart Alexis Tsipras ensued, culminating in the June signing of an accord on the shores of Lake Prespa, which straddles their borders.
“I truly enjoyed signing the deal in beautiful Prespa, opening the champagne…This will be an unforgettable memory,” Zaev, not shy to show emotion, told AFP.
While the deal has been pilloried by Macedonian nationalists as an embarrassing concession to Athens, supporters have applauded Zaev’s willingness to take the high road.
However, some would like him to move faster on a promise to tackle widespread corruption.
Zaev himself was accused — but acquitted in May — of a graft charge dating back to his time as mayor.
For now, the name issue is taking centre stage.
If it fails to pass, both Macedonia and Zaev’s future hang in the balance.
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