Ohio: Historically Redder than National Polls

Ohio: Historically Redder than National Polls

The Obama campaign, realizing that they are trailing in the national polls, is trotting out a new meme: Romney may be ahead nationally, but he’s losing in the swing states, particularly Ohio.

Really? That’s curious. In every presidential election since 1980 except one, the state of Ohio has voted in higher numbers for the Republican candidate, sometimes significantly higher, than the national average. The only exception was in 2004, when George W. Bush had a 3.5% edge nationally, and a 2.1% edge in Ohio.

Let’s look at the numbers:

2008: National average: Obama 52.87, McCain 45.60. Obama ahead 7.27

Ohio: Obama 51.38, McCain 46.80. Obama ahead only 4.5

2004: National average: Bush 51.73, Kerry 48.27 Bush ahead 3.46

Ohio: Bush 51.01, Kerry 48.52. Bush ahead 2.1

2000: National average: Gore 48.38, Bush 47.87 Gore ahead  0.51

Ohio: Bush 49.97, Gore 46.46 Bush ahead 3.51

1996: National average: Clinton 49.23, Dole 40.72 Clinton ahead 8.5

Ohio: Clinton 47.38, Dole 41.02 Clinton only ahead 6.3

1992: National average: Clinton 43.01, George H. Bush 37.45 Clinton ahead 5.56

Ohio: Clinton 40.18, Bush 38.35. Clinton only ahead 1.8

1988: National average: Bush 53.37, Dukakis 45.65. Bush ahead 7.72

Ohio: Bush 55.00, Dukakis 44.15. Bush ahead 10.85

1984: National average: Reagan 58.77, Mondale 40.56 Reagan ahead 18.21

Ohio: Reagan 58.90, Mondale 40.14 Reagan ahead 18.76

1980: National average: Reagan 50.75, Carter 41.01 Reagan ahead 9.74

Ohio: Reagan 51.51, Carter 40.91 Reagan ahead 10.6

This bodes well for the Romney campaign. Because national polls show him with a lead over Obama, history shows that the state of Ohio will do even better for Romney than the polls show.

The Obama campaign can try their new tactic as much as they want, but Ohio is looking rosier for Mitt Romney by the day.