Drama: Dueling Polls Find Hagan with 4 percent lead, Tillis with 5 percent lead

Drama: Dueling Polls Find Hagan with 4 percent lead, Tillis with 5 percent lead

While other recent polls have the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina at a virtual tie, Thursday morning brought dueling polls, one showing Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) with a slight lead and another showing her Republican challenger state House Speaker Thom Tillis also with a slight lead. 

A Elon University Poll taken Oct. 21-25 and released Thursday has Hagan with a 4 percent leaded and a poll from the Republican group Vox Populi taken Oct. 25-27 also released Thursday has Tillis with a 5 percentage point lead.

In the Elon poll, Hagan boasts support from 44.7 percent of likely voters compared to Tillis’s 40.7 percent. The Libertarian third party candidate Sean Haugh was not listed by in in the poll, however 6.3 percent said they would be supporting somebody else besides the two major party candidates and 6.6 percent did not know. 

The results, taken from a sample of 687 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 3.74 percentage points and, according to Elon, the new results “mirror” the findings from early last month.

The Vox Populi poll, which was first reported by Politico, has Tillis with 48 percent and Hagan with 43 percent. The Vox Populi poll also did not name Haugh in the survey but 4.9 percent said they were “unsure” who they would vote for between the two major candidates.  

The Vox Populi survey looked at 615 “active voters” and has a margin of error of +/-3.95 percentage points. 

The Elon and Vox Populi polls are slight outliers compared to the NBC News/Marist Poll and High Point University/SurveyUSA poll released earlier this week both of which found the race tied at 43 percent and 44 percent respectively. 

Meanwhile Wednesday The Rothenberg Political Report shifted the North Carolina Senate race from a “tossup/tilts Democratic” to “pure tossup.”


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