Shock Poll: Donald Trump Beats Hillary Clinton, Shrinks Key Gaps

The Associated Press
The Associated Press

Donald Trump has a clear path to the White House, according to a shocking new poll from SurveyUSA.

Trump beats Hillary Clinton 45 percent to 40 percent, with 16 percent of voters undecided.

He wins a huge share of the Democrats’ non-white base — 25 percent of African Americans, 31 percent of Hispanics and 41 percent of the relatively small Asian vote.

That’s a heart attack for the GOP establishment, which predicts that the arrival of even more low-wage foreign workers will yield more GOP votes from low-wage Hispanics, plus more donations from the wealthy investors who pay the salaries of GOP consultants, pollsters, and advertising executives.

In contrast, Trump is committing GOP heresy by touting a border wall, some form of repatriation program for millions of American-trained undocumented migrant workers, and new curbs on middle-class outsourcing to the roughly 700,000 guest-workers used by Fortune 500 companies. Trump’s labor-supply reform would likely create jobs for Americans, raise wages, and lower profits, all of which might somehow, possibly, in an impossible-to-imagine-kinda-existential-pocketbook-process, boost his support among the lower-wage, often-jobless Americans who don’t own stock on Wall Street.

In 2012, the GOP’s establishment candidate, former Gov. Mitt Romney, won only 27 percent of Hispanics and a mere 6 percent of blacks, who are hit hardest by the bipartisan support for cheap, government-dependent migrants.

But Trump faces huge obstacles before he can reach the Oval Office — especially winning over the large undecided vote, which the polls says is at 16 percent. The SurveyUSA poll quizzed 1,000 Americans, including 900 registered voters, on September 2 and September 3. The poll shows no obvious skew for either candidate.

Still, the poll also shows that Trump reverses the long-standing sex-gap to +10 percent in his favor. That’s the combination of a 15-point advantage among men, and only a 5-point disadvantage among women. In contrast, Romney had a 7-point advantage among men, and a 11-point disadvantage among women, resulting in a -4-point sex-gap.

Clinton wins people younger than age 35 by a large 19 points, but Trump wins the three older demographic groups by roughly 15 points.

Trump wins four-year college grads by eight points, and people with some college by 13 points, leaving Clinton to take the high-school-only voters, 44 percent to 35 percent.

Trump wins swing-voting moderates, 42 percent to 38 percent.

Clinton wins the West by a scant 2 points, and the Northeast by only 4 points, but Trump wins the very important swing-voting Midwest by a huge margin — 49 percent to 31 percent.

Trump beats the Democrats’ B-team — Sen. Bernie Sanders 44 percent to 40 percent, Vice President Joe Biden by 44 percent to 42 percent, and former Vice President Al Gore by 44 percent to 41 percent.

And Trump hasn’t spent a penny on advertising so far.


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