Exclusive–Breitbart/Gravis Pennsylvania Poll: Clinton Leads Trump by 3 Points

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton attends a rally at Palm Beach State College in Lake Worth, Florida, October 26, 2016.

Hillary Clinton is the presidential choice of 47 percent of Pennsylvania voters, compared to 44 percent for her GOP rival Donald Trump, according to the latest Breitbart/Gravis poll.

The survey was conducted in the Keystone State between Oct. 25 and Oct. 30 with 3,217 registered voters. The poll carries a 1.7 percent margin of error with a 95 percent level of confidence.

PA Oct 27 v3 (1) by Breitbart News on Scribd

“This poll has a very large sample and by taking it over a number of days we feel it is a realistic snapshot of the race in Pennsylvania,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing director of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based polling company that conducted the poll.

“It is remarkable how unpopular both candidates are,” he said. “Both Clinton and Trump have 46 percent of the people telling us that they have a ‘strongly unfavorable’ opinion of them.”

Kaplan said Libertarian Gary Johnson was the choice of 3 percent and Green Party nominee Dr. Jill Stein was the choice of 2 percent.

In the Senate race, Republican Sen. Pat Toomey trails his Democratic challenger Katie McGinty with 41 percent to her 45 percent, he said.

“One big take-away is that we were in the field with the poll, when the FBI news broke Friday,” he said. “But, there was already a negative feeling about how the FBI handled Clinton’s private emails.”

Friday, James Comey notified Congress that the FBI had more documents that it was reviewing in relation to its investigation into Clinton’s handling of sensitive electronic correspondence, while she was the secrethaary of state. Comey announced July 5 that he was recommending to the Department of Justice that its prosecutors should decline the opportunity to prosecute Clinton.

Poll participants were asked: The FBI has concluded that Hillary Clinton potentially exposed top secret information to hostile countries when she used a private email server when she was Secretary of State but the agency has decided not to seek a criminal indictment of her. Which is closer to your view?

Fifty-one percent said Comey’s recommendation was incorrect and 42 percent said the decision was correct.

In the 2012 presidential campaign, W. Mitt Romney lost Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes to President Barack Obama with 47 percent of the vote to the president’s 52 percent.

In 2008, Sen. Barack Obama (D.-Ill.) beat Sen. John S. McCain III (R.-Ariz.) with 54 percent to McCain’s 44 percent.

Inside the poll, there is a strong indication that Pennsylvania voters are looking for change.

Fifty-five percent of Pennsylvania voters polled said America is going in the wrong direction with 37 percent saying the country is going in the right direction. It is a result that lines up with when the respondents were asked if the next president should continue the policies of the Obama administration or make a change, 57 percent said change and 37 percent said to continue Obama policies–an interesting twist for the man, who was the “Change” candidate in 2008.

The poll was conducted  interactive voice responses, with the results weighted to match a proprietary turnout model.


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