NEW YORK CITY, New York — Trump Tower is ecstatic as his pathway to 270 plus electoral votes and the White House keeps widening with a new poll out of Colorado showing that Donald J. Trump has tied his rival Hillary Rodham Clinton there.
The University of Denver poll, released Wednesday evening, shows Trump and Clinton tied at 39 percent while Libertarian Gary Johnson gets five percent and the Green Party’s Dr. Jill Stein gets four percent. The survey, conducted from Oct. 29 to Oct. 31—after the FBI announced it was reopening the criminal investigation into Hillary Clinton’s illicit home-brew email server set up in violation of State Department guidelines—has a margin of error of 4.2 percent.
Colorado’s nine electoral votes would easily put Trump over the top of the necessary 270 electoral votes if the New York billionaire businessman can hold Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa—all of which he’s leading in—and the red states, among other states in which he is surging. Surveys out this week have shown Trump trending upwards into the lead in Virginia and close to Clinton inside the margin of error in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Other states, like Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Mexico, have tightened as well—while Maine’s second congressional district is moving in Trump’s direction.
Veteran Colorado pollster Floyd Ciruli, who conducted the poll, told the Denver Post that the results are “reflective of the fact that this environment has turned negative for Clinton”—specifically in the wake of the fact the FBI has reopened the email investigation. It has also been confirmed the FBI is investigating the Clinton Foundation in recent days.
Early voters in Colorado benefit Clinton, according to the poll, per the Denver Post’s John Frank.
“Among voters who already cast ballots, Clinton sits in a much better position at 45 percent to 38 percent for Trump — a number that appears to support early voting figures showing Democrats with a 23,000 ballot advantage,” Frank wrote of the survey. “But among those who have not yet voted, the numbers flip — which gives Republicans hope that its voters will close the gap in the final days.”
Recent polling out of Colorado shows the state has become a key battleground over the last month, and Clinton’s campaign—which originally abandoned Colorado during the summer—has now gone up with six-figure television ad buys in Colorado and elsewhere to try to regain the states they have lost.
This survey confirms other polls in recent days, from CBS/YouGov, Remington Research, and Emerson College—each of which showed statistical ties between Trump and Clinton in Colorado. Breitbart News/Gravis Marketing polling from early October was the first to show Colorado tightening again after the party conventions, but then it reopened for Clinton over the course of October, only to close back up again to a tight race in the end.