Even New York Tightening, Poll Reveals

Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton boards her campaign plane at Westchester County Airport on October 27, 2016 in White Plains, New York.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Hillary Clinton’s once huge lead over Donald Trump is shrinking in the Democratic stronghold of New York, according to the latest poll.

The poll, conducted by the McLaughlin and Associates shows Clinton leading Trump 49 to 38 percent in a four way race. Just two weeks ago, a Siena poll found Clinton having a commanding 24 point lead over Trump, 54 percent to 30 percent in a four way race.

The McLaughlin poll mirrored the recent Siena poll in terms of sampling and compared the finding in terms of support and favorability. In the press release, McLaughlin stated the news of the renewed email investigation show Clinton’s support “in her adopted home state” is weakening.

Some 600 likely New York voters were surveyed by landline and cellphone. The poll was conducted on October 27-29, a day before and after news broke the FBI announced it is reopening the investigation into Clinton private email server.

According to the poll, 49 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton, a three percent increase from the Siena poll that shows her at 46 percent unfavorability. As for favorable view, Trump ratings have improved, receiving a 36 percent favorable in the McLaughlin survey, a 10 point increase since the Siena poll that had Trump with a 26 percent favorable rating.

One third of those surveyed identified themselves as Republicans, while 48 percent stated they are Democrats and 20 percent are registered Independent.

When asked what will be the most important factor in deciding their vote, 41 percent said Clinton’s corruption and dishonest will affect their vote. Over 39 percent of Independent voters find this more a motivating factor, a sign as the corruption scandals intensifies can be problematic for Clinton to win the Independent vote.

By party, both candidates received over 70 percent of the vote by their respective party — 72 percent of Republicans will vote for Trump, while 75 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Clinton. However, regarding the independent vote, Trump leads Clinton 40 percent to 36 percent.

When breaking down the votes in the New York area, Trump leads Clinton in the suburbs and upstate, giving down-ticket Republicans in contested state races the hope in maintaining control of the state senate. Trump leads 48 percent to 41 percent for Clinton in the suburbs and 43 percent to 41 percent in upstate New York.

Trump has a slight lead with men, 43 to 40 percent and whites 45 to 42 percent. However, Clinton leads with women, 55 to 36 percent and African Americans, 82 to 13 percent.

The poll focused on “hidden Trump voter,” a question pollsters have yet to ask voters. Among its finding, 39 percent of Republicans said yes, while 42 percent of Democrats thought the same thing. 52 percent of Trump voters also believe there are hidden Trump voters, compared to 35 percent of Clinton supporters.


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