An Emerson College Poll released on Monday shows that Judge Roy Moore is leading incumbent Senator Luther Strange (R-AL) in the September 26 Republican primary runoff election by 14 points.
This is the fourth in a series of polls conducted since the August primary in which Moore and Strange qualified for the September 26 runoff election that shows Moore with a double digit lead over Strange.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) well financed paid media attacks on Moore, however, are putting the safe Republican Senate seat in jeopardy for the December general election.
“Moore polled at 40% while Strange was at 26%. Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters were undecided, and the survey had a margin of error of 5.2 percentage points,” the Emerson Poll said in a press release, which continued:
Voters in Alabama gave President Trump a 52% job approval and 36% disapproval, but that popularity has not transferred to his endorsed candidate Strange, as voters who approve of the President are breaking for Moore 51% to 32%.
Supporters of Republican Congressman Mo Brooks who grabbed 20% in the GOP primary in August appear to be splitting their vote between Moore and Strange, with about 1/3rd breaking for each candidates and the last third undecided.
The heated battle between the popular Moore and the well financed establishment incumbent Strange has taken its toll in the general election matchup between the Republican primary winner and Democratic nominee Doug Jones, who easily secured his party’s nomination in August:
Regardless of who wins the divisive GOP nomination it appears Democrat Doug Jones will start in a competitive position for the General election as he trails Strange 40% to 43%, and Moore 40% to 44%, well within the polls 4.8% margin of error.
The GOP primary may have left supporters of both candidates unwilling at this time to support their party rival. Of those voting for Moore in the primary, 25% said they will vote for Jones and 49% said they would vote for Strange in the General. Similarly, Strange supporters found 31% voting for Jones and 34% voting for Moore. The GOP will need to find a way to unite during the 11 weeks until the General Election, or face the prospect of Jones pulling off an upset.
If Jones were to win, Alabama could send their first Democrat to the US Senate in over 20 years.
Judge Moore has a four point lead over Jones, while Strange has a three point lead over Jones, though the one point differential is within the poll’s margin of error.
The Emerson College Poll was conducted between September 8 and 9. Results were reported for the Republican primary runoff based on interviews of 355 likely Republican primary voters “using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only.” Those results have a 5.2 percent margin of error.
Results were reported for the December general election based on interviews of 416 likely voters, also “using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only.” Those results have a 4.8 percent margin of error.
You can read the complete poll here.