A new poll released on Monday by Valley News Live, the NBC-TV affiliate in Fargo, North Dakota, and Strategic Research Associates, shows that Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) has jumped to a ten point lead over incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) in the North Dakota Senate race.
The poll of 650 likely voters in North Dakota conducted between September 17 and September 27 shows that Cramer now leads Heitkamp 51 percent to 41 percent, with eight percent undecided. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
Cramer has increased his lead over Heitkamp by six points in the past few weeks.
A Fox News poll conducted between September 8 and 11, two weeks before the dramatic testimony of Brett Kavanaugh and accuser Dr. Christine Blasey Ford on September 27 before the Senate Judiciary Committee, showed Cramer with a four point lead, 48 percent to 44 percent, which was within the poll’s margin of error.
Heitkamp is one of two Democrat senators who have not yet announced how they will vote on the confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. The full Senate is expected to vote up or down on his confirmation this Friday.
The poll also shows that likely voters in North Dakota overwhelmingly support confirming Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court:
In another question that VNL asked, 60% of the likely voters in North Dakota support the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. 27% were opposed.
Keep in mind, the poll was conducted during the disclosure that the judge may have engaged in sexual misconduct, while in high school or college, before last week’s testimony by Kavanaugh and one of his accusers, before the Senate Judiciary Committee.
In 2016, President Trump won the state’s three electoral college votes by a margin of 36 points over Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Heitkamp’s campaign has stumbled in recent weeks.
Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is taking heat for her refusal to “crack down on dangerous sanctuary cities” in an ad released Tuesday.
The North Dakota Republican Party ad opens with a narration: “President Trump wants to stop illegal immigration — but Heidi Heitkamp must not.” Heitkamp faces a tough challenge from Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer.
President Donald Trump flashes onto the screen with his comments on Heitkamp at a recent rally: “Heidi voted in favor of the deadly, very very dangerous, horrible, sanctuary cities.”The ad points to three opportunities Heitkamp had to vote to defund sanctuary cities but did not. “When Heidi was confronted with her record of failure, she dismissed the issue as a ‘scare tactic,’” the ad states.
Earlier in September, Heitkamp’s brother, Joel Heitkamp, a North Dakota talk radio host, said in a tweet President Trump will help victims of Hurricane Florence because “they’re white.”
— Joel Heitkamp (@JoelKFGO) September 12, 2018
Sen. Heitkamp is a frequent guest on her brother’s radio show.
On Monday, the Cramer campaign took advantage of the momentum in the race by launching a new ad that criticized Heitkamp for voting against President Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Here’s the full transcript of that ad:
I’m Kevin Black, president of Creedence Energy Services. President Trump’s tax cuts kicked in pretty quick, and our company jumped at the chance to grow.
Did the tax cut make a difference?
Black: We hired 12 new people, and now we are up to 28 good-paying jobs. Our nation is booming, and our economy is creating thousands of new jobs.
Black: That’s why I’m voting for Kevin Cramer.”
Black: I can’t believe Heidi Heitkamp would repeal the tax cuts. Try telling that to my new employees.
The Cramer campaign statement notes that while he voted for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, “Senator Heidi Heitkamp voted against the tax cuts that have benefited North Dakota more than any other state. Heitkamp said she does not regret her opposition to these cuts, and her Democrat party in Washington wants them repealed.”
You can watch the ad here: