Model Projects When the Coronavirus Will Peak in Each State

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The United States, as a whole, is roughly two weeks away from reaching the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, but the peaks for individual states will vary, with most occurring over the next four weeks, according to projections from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

When it comes to the arrival of the coronavirus, not all states are facing the same timeline. Some states, like New York and Louisiana, have quickly become epicenters of the virus in the United States and, as a result, will reach a resource peak weeks sooner than states like Kentucky and Missouri, which are not expected to reach their highest demand until the second week of May. The various projections, based on peak hospital resource demand caused by the virus, could explain why some governors are taking more aggressive, imminent actions in their response to the pandemic.

Here are the projected peaks for all 50 states, plus D.C., per the IHME model. The model takes into consideration the number of beds needed, as well as ventilators.

New York, for example, is expected to hit its resource peak April 9. The current model, at the time of this publication, estimates a bed shortage of 60,610 and 9,055 ventilators needed. A state like Kentucky, however, is not expected to reach its peak until May 12. It shows the state having a surplus of beds and 288 ventilators needed.

Here is the resource peak for each state. Resource details can be found here:

  1. Vermont: April 9
  2. New York: April 9
  3. New Jersey: April 9
  4. Michigan: April 10
  5. Connecticut: April 10
  6. Louisiana: April 10
  7. Idaho: April 12
  8. Massachusetts: April 14
  9. Iowa: April 15
  10. Pennsylvania: April 15
  11. Illinois: April 16
  12. Oklahoma: April 17
  13. Indiana: April 17
  14. Colorado: April 17
  15. Washington, DC: April 18
  16. Rhode Island: April 19
  17. Ohio: April 19
  18. Delaware: April 20
  19. Alabama: April 20
  20. Arkansas: April 20
  21. Nevada: April 20
  22. Minnesota: April 21
  23. Georgia: April 22
  24. Mississippi: April 22
  25. North Carolina: April 22
  26. Arizona: April 24
  27. South Carolina: April 24
  28. Washington: April 24
  29. Maine: April 25
  30. Tennessee: April 26
  31. California: April 26
  32. Wisconsin: April 26
  33. Utah: April 27
  34. Kansas: April 28
  35. New Hampshire: April 30
  36. New Mexico: April 30
  37. Alaska: April 30
  38. Hawaii: April 30
  39. Nebraska: April 30
  40. Montana: April 30
  41. West Virginia: May 1
  42. North Dakota: May 1
  43. South Dakota: May 1
  44. Wyoming: May 1
  45. Texas: May 2
  46. Oregon: May 3
  47. Florida: May 3
  48. Missouri: May 11
  49. Kentucky: May 12
  50. Maryland: May 14
  51. Virginia: May 17

The model shows April 14 as the peak for the United States as a whole. However, it notes that the projections are contingent on the continuation of “strong social distancing measures and other protective measures.”

President Trump officially extended the “Slow the Spread” coronavirus guidelines to April 30 during a press conference over the weekend.

“Nothing would be worse than declaring victory before the victory is won, that would be the greatest loss of all,” Trump, who had remained optimistic on reopening the economy on Easter, said during the press conference in the Rose Garden.

“The better you do the faster this whole nightmare will end, therefore we will extend our guidelines to April 30 to slow the spread,” he continued, predicting that the country will be “well on our way to recovering” by June 1.


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