Florida Poll: Joe Biden 50%, President Trump 45%

Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) holds a single-digit advantage over President Trump in the battleground state of Florida, a Monmouth University Poll released on Tuesday showed.

The survey, taken September 10-13 among 428 registered voters in Florida showed Biden leading President Trump 50 percent to 45 percent. Biden’s lead is just outside of the survey’s margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent:

FLORIDA
Biden 50% (+5)
Trump 45%
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 0%@MonmouthPoll, RV, 9/19-13https://t.co/Z3EKJIQUHp

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 15, 2020

Another model, based on low likely turnout, shifted slightly in the president’s favor, giving him 46 percent to Biden’s 49 percent. While Biden leads among Latino voters, the survey found that Trump may be gaining among older voters in that group:

The Democrat has a large advantage among voters of color (70% to 22%) although the lead is smaller among Latino voters specifically (58% to 32%). According to the 2016 exit poll conducted by Edison Research for the national networks, Hillary Clinton won Florida’s Latino vote by 27 points (62% to 35%).

“Biden’s current lead among Latinos is similar to Clinton’s margin four years ago. One difference, though, is how Florida’s Latino electorate has shifted since 2016,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, explained.

“There has been an influx of residents from Puerto Rico and a growing number of young voters. These groups tend to be more Democratic, which actually suggests that Trump could be doing slightly better among older Latino voters than he did four years ago,” Murray added.

Overall, 38 percent of voters indicated that they were “certain” to vote for President Trump in November, compared to the 41 percent who said the same of Biden.

Forty-one percent of voters had a “very” or “somewhat” favorable view of the president, compared to the 51 percent who maintained an unfavorable view.

Forty-seven percent indicated a generally favorable view of Biden, compared to 44 percent who indicated an unfavorable view of the former vice president.

Florida voters appear to be highly motivated to vote in the presidential election, with 88 percent stating that they are “very” motivated to vote, followed by eight percent who said they were “somewhat” motivated, and three percent who said they were “not that” motivated. That coincides with the a plurality expressing general enthusiasm for voting in this year’s presidential election. Forty-seven percent said they are “more enthusiastic” than usual, when compared to past elections.

A Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative (FAU BEPI) released on Tuesday also showed a tight race in Florida, with the two candidates statistically tied, as Breitbart News detailed.

“Biden holds a 49 percent to 46 percent lead, with five percent undecided, but those undecideds are breaking for Trump 4:1, resulting in a statistical tie at 50 percent for each candidate,” according to a press statement.

President Trump edged out Hillary Clinton in the Sunshine State by 1.2 percent. Tuesday’s RealClearPolitics average showed Biden leading Trump by 1.6 percent.