Arizona Poll: Joe Biden 49%, President Trump 41%

Joe Biden (D) holds an eight-point advantage over President Trump in the swing state Arizona, a New York Times-Siena College poll released Monday revealed.

The former vice president is leading Trump in the Grand Canyon State, 49 percent to 41 percent, the survey fielded October 1-3 among 655 Arizona likely voters revealed. Three percent chose Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen, and six percent indicated that they were undecided:

ARIZONA
Biden 49% (+8)
Trump 41%
Jorgensen 3%
.#AZsen:
Kelly (D) 50% (+11)
McSally (R-inc) 39%@SienaResearch/@UpshotNYT, LV, 10/1-3https://t.co/EeJ5189s1m

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 5, 2020

“Have you decided you’ll definitely vote for [CANDIDATE NAME] or is there still some chance you could change your mind?” the survey asked.

The vast majority, 91 percent, said they are “definitely” going to vote for the candidate they named, eight percent said they could change their mind, and one percent said they do not know.

The survey also examined the Senate race between Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and her Democrat challenger Mark Kelly, who leads the incumbent by double digits, 50 percent to 39 percent. Ten percent said they “didn’t know” or refused to answer.

A majority of Arizona voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance, with 48 percent saying they “strongly” disapprove and four percent saying they “somewhat” disapprove. Thirty-five percent said they “strongly” approve, and another ten percent said they “somewhat” approve. Forty-five percent of voters have a generally favorable view of the president, with 52 percent holding an unfavorable view. On the flip side, 52 percent hold a favorable view of the president, with 45 percent holding an unfavorable view.

Despite holding an eight-point advantage over the president, 49 percent of voters said they trust Trump to do a “better job” on the economy, compared to Biden, who garnered 46 percent. However, voters indicated that they tend to trust Biden over Trump on other key issues, including unifying America, maintaining law and order, and choosing a Supreme Court justice. Notably, a plurality of Arizona voters said they support the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, with 42 percent supporting the nomination, 37 percent opposing, and 21 percent remaining undecided.

When asked who they believed their spouse or partner would vote for if the election were held today, 44 percent said Biden and 44 percent said Trump.

The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.2 percent.

Trump won Arizona in 2016 by 3.5 percent. Monday’s RealClearPolitics average showed Biden leading in Arizona by three percent.