President Donald Trump has taken a narrow lead in Pennsylvania, a Trafalgar Group survey released on Tuesday — one week from Election Day — found.
The survey, taken October 24-25, among 1,077 respondents, found Trump carrying a slight edge in the Keystone State, garnering 48.4 percent to former Vice President Joe Biden’s 47.6 percent. The results, which include leaners, show 2.2 percent backing Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen and one percent of voters remaining undecided. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 2.91 percent.
According to Robert Cahaly, chief pollster at the Trafalgar Group, the survey shows undecided voters “shrinking” and Trump taking a narrow lead “for the first time”:
Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #PApoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows undecided shrinking and a narrow Trump lead for the first time:
1.0% Und. See Report: https://t.co/qf16dkxcCX pic.twitter.com/Vv3i8R4cK1
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 27, 2020
Trump secured an upset victory in Pennsylvania in 2016, outperforming polls and defeating Hillary Clinton by 0.7 percent despite the final RealClearPolitics average showing Clinton up by 2.1 percent.
An Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness survey released Monday showed Trump leading Biden by two percentage points following last week’s final presidential debate:
A 5 point shift towards Trump from their pre-debate poll https://t.co/JCDyjmtENF
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 26, 2020
According to the U.S. Elections Project, Democrats in Pennsylvania hold a sizeable lead over Republicans in terms of mailed-in ballots, returning 1,193,887 to the GOP’s 355,317 as of Tuesday afternoon. Of the 3 million ballots requested across the board, only 1.7 million have been returned as the election stands just one week away.