Monmouth Poll: GOP Has ‘Decided Advantage’ over Democrats Going into Midterms

People vote at a polling place at a high school in McLean, Virginia during the US presidential election on November 8, 2016. / AFP / ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS (Photo credit should read ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP/Getty Images)
ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP/Getty Images

A recent Monmouth University poll found that Republicans “have a decided advantage over Democrats” going into the midterm election when you factor in independent voters.

While the approval for Congress, currently controlled by the Democrat Party and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), sits at a low 19 percent, with almost two-thirds (74 percent) disapproving, the Republicans appear to be in good shape heading into the midterms.

The poll found that Republicans slightly edge out the Democrats when adults in the United States were asked whom they would rather see in control of Congress. Thirty-five percent of the respondents said the Republican Party, while 33 percent said the Democrats.

But, the respondents who did not pick a side were asked which side they lean. Fifteen percent said, while it does not matter, they lean towards the Republicans, while ten percent said Democrats. Also, seven percent only said it does not matter.

The Monmouth University poll revealed that a “warning sign” for the Democrats is the shift in political parties, then they ask respondents to self-report their party affiliation.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi leave a meeting with House Democrats at the U.S. Capitol on Capitol Hill October 28, 2021 in Washington, DC. President Biden will meet with House Democrats on Thursday morning to try and secure a vote on the Senate-passed bipartisan infrastructure bill and discuss his multi-trillion social policy spending bill. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

U.S. President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi leave a meeting with House Democrats at the U.S. Capitol on Capitol Hill October 28, 2021, in Washington, DC. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

The poll showed that only 26 percent of their respondents self-identified as Democrats, which has gone down from the last year when the percentage has ranged from 30 percent to 34 percent. But, the poll also showed that 31 percent has self-identified as Republicans, which has gone up from the last year when the percentage ranged from 23 percent to 27 percent.

As the self-identified Republicans are trending up, combined with independents who have stated they support one party over the other, Republicans have a “decided advantage” with 51 percent, against the Democrats’ 41 percent.

“Republicans have a default advantage heading into the midterms. Simply put, they are not currently in power. Voters who don’t see much difference in the parties are going to be a key factor,” said Patrick Murray, the director of Monmouth University Polling Institute. “That means the prospect of changing the congressional majority does not necessarily translate into hope that Washington will get any better.”

The Monmouth University poll was conducted between January 20 and 24. The survey questions were asked to 794 adults in the United States and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. You can follow him on Twitter.

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