Poll: Trump-Endorsed Kelly Tshibaka Tied with 21-Year Incumbent Lisa Murkowski

Trump-endorsed candidate Kelly Tshibaka is tied with 21-year incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) for U.S. Senate with about 50 days until the election, national pollster Cygnal revealed Monday.

The poll takes into account Alaska’s ranked-choice voting. Tshibaka leads Murkowski on the first ballot by 7.9 points and on the second by 9.3 points. On the third ballot, the poll shows Murkowski leading Tshibaka by 0.2 percent, a statistical tie.

Democrat Pat Chesbro received 13.1 percent on the first ballot and 13.9 percent on the second ballot before becoming ineligible for the third ballot.

The poll suggests that Murkowski’s best chance of defeating Tshibaka is Democrat voters, who could vote for Murkowski as the ranked-choice system advances. The way Alaska’s ranked-choice general election and open primary system, instituted in 2020, works is as follows:

All candidates from all parties appear on the ballot together in the August primary. The top four vote-getters regardless of party then advance to the general election, and their voters are given the opportunity to pick their top choice, as well as their second and third choices. If no candidate in the first round of voters’ first choices gets 50 percent of the vote, the last place candidate’s second choices are distributed across the remaining three candidates to see if someone can get across the majority threshold. If that fails again to produce a majority vote-getter, then a third round is conducted where the third place candidate’s votes are redistributed according to second choices between the remaining two candidates.

In a positive sign for Tshibaka, Edgar Blatchford, a former U.S. Senate Democrat candidate, endorsed Tshibaka last week after bowing out of the race. The endorsement could mitigate some of the Democrat support Murkowski needs to defeat the challenger. Democrat candidates in the open August 16 primary only received about 8.5 percentage points of the vote.

U.S. President Joe Biden talks with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) after signing the VOCA Fix to Sustain the Crime Victims Fund Act of 2021 into law in the East Room of the White House on July 22, 2021, in Washington, DC. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

After the votes were totaled, Murkowski and Tshibaka both advanced to the general election. Election results showed Murkowski came in first place over Tshibaka by about seven points. But since the primary, Blatchford and Buzz Kelley, a fellow Republican candidate, suspended their campaigns and endorsed Tshibaka in November’s election. The endorsements are notable in the ranked-choice voting system.