Poll: Ted Budd Leads Democrat Cheri Beasley by 4 Points Ahead of North Carolina U.S. Senate Race

Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC) is expanding his lead weeks out from the North Carolina U.S. Senate race, with a second poll this week showing him ahead of Democrat Cheri Beasley outside of a survey’s margin of error.

A poll released on Wednesday by Trafalgar Group shows Budd with 48.4 percent support compared to Beasley’s 44.2 percent. The poll was conducted between Oct. 16 – 19 with 1081 likely general election voters, and the margin of error is ± 2.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

Roughly 5 percent of likely voters are undecided and no other candidate garnered over 2 percent. Democrat voters made up 41.3 percent of the sample, Republicans made up 40.1 percent, and more women (54.9 percent) participated than men (45.1 percent).

: Ted Budd holds over Cheri Beasley in North Carolina Senate Race

(R) Ted Budd 48% (+4)
(D) Cheri Beasley 44%

⦿ Trafalgar Group
⦿ N=1,087 LV | D41/R40/I19
⦿ Fieldwork: 10/16-19https://t.co/TpQolJnZmY pic.twitter.com/yiosN1562r

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 20, 2022

Earlier this week, an East Carolina University (ECU) Poll showed Budd leading former North Carolina Supreme Court Chief Justice Beasley by 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent. Those results fell outside that survey’s ±3.8 percent Credibility Interval (CI), which is similar to a poll’s margin of error. ECU Poll also tends to overestimate Democrat candidates, according to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight.

Those poll results also showed Budd gaining support since ECU Poll last surveyed for the North Carolina U.S. Senate race. In September, the pollsters showed Budd leading Beasley 49 percent to 46 percent, which was within the survey’s ±3.6 percent Credibility Interval.

North Carolina Senate Polling Trends by East Carolina University

September
(R) Ted Budd 49% (+3)
(D) Cheri Beasley 46%

October
(R) Ted Budd 50% (+6)
(D) Cheri Beasley 44%

✅ pic.twitter.com/RpSNlxFIXZ

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 17, 2022

RealClearPolitics (RCP) has averaged out recent poll results to give Budd a 2.8 point lead in the race to fill retired Sen. Richard Burr’s (R-NC) seat. RCP ranks the race a “toss up” and gives it a “GOP Hold” projection.

As Breitbart News reported, the North Carolina senate seat is among the first tier of seats Republicans “absolutely need to hold to win the majority.” The Hill recently called the race one of “four sleeper races that may decide the Senate majority.” Budd and Beasley will face off on Nov. 8.