AZ Poll: Blake Masters in Dead Heat with Democrat Mark Kelly; Lake Leads Hobbs

This combination of photos shows Arizona Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters, left,
AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin
Nick Gilbertson

Arizona’s U.S. Senate race is a dead heat between Republican Blake Masters and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), while Kari Lake leads in the governor’s race, according to a poll.

The InsiderAdvantage poll sponsored by Fox 10 Phoenix shows 48 percent of likely voters are voting for Masters while 48 percent back Kelly. Another two percent support Libertarian Marc Victor, who dropped out of the race Tuesday and endorsed Masters after the pair had a discussion. Two percent are either undecided or do not have an opinion.

“After that discussion, I believe it is in the best interests of freedom and peace to withdraw my candidacy and enthusiastically support Blake Masters for United States Senate,” said Victor. “I intend to assist in any way reasonably possible to elect Blake.”

Masters is surging compared to another InsiderAdvatage poll published on October 26. The polling outfit conducted that survey before Victor dropped out of the race and found the Republican garnered 43 percent of likely voter support while 45 percent backed Kelly. A significant portion of Victor’s backers appear to have flocked to the other candidates, as he drew six percent of the response last week but just two percent this time around.

In the governor’s race, Lake holds a three-point lead over Democrat candidate Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. Of the respondents, 51 percent back Lake, and 48 percent support Hobbs. Another one percent of likely voters polled remain undecided. Last week’s numbers from InsiderAdvatge showed Lake with a double-digit lead, but pollster “Matt Towery believes it may have been an anomaly,” according to Fox 10 Phoenix.

Lake leads Hobbs in 13 of the last 15 polls posted on FiveThirtyEight’s website as of this writing. Lake and Hobbs were tied in the other two polls in which the Republican was not ahead.

InsiderAdvantage surveyed 550 likely voters on November 2, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

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