Poll: Donald Trump Holds 30-Point Lead over 2024 GOP Primary Field

PALM BEACH, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 15: Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives on stage dur
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Nick Gilbertson

Former President Donald J. Trump holds a towering 30-point lead over the rest of the potential 2024 Republican primary field, according to a poll.

In an Emerson College Polling survey released Tuesday, 55.1 percent of registered voters said they would vote for Trump in the 2024 GOP primary, placing him 30.3 points ahead of his nearest competitor, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). The Florida governor garnered 24.8 percent of the response.

Former Vice President Mike Pence came in third place as 7.5 percent of participants said they would back him, and 3.6 percent would support outgoing Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), the vice chair of the January 6th Select Committee. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) drew support from 3.4 percent of poll participants. While the entire poll surveyed 1,380 registered voters, the question asking poll participants who they would support in the GOP primary had a sample size of 614 respondents.

Republican gubernatorial candidate for Florida Ron DeSantis with his wife Casey DeSantis speaks to supporters during an election night watch party at the Convention Center in Tampa, Florida, on November 8, 2022. - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has been tipped as a possible 2024 presidential candidate, was projected as one of the early winners of the night in Tuesday's midterm election. (Photo by Giorgio VIERA / AFP) (Photo by GIORGIO VIERA/AFP via Getty Images)

Ron DeSantis speaks to supporters during an election night watch party at the Convention Center in Tampa, Florida, on November 8, 2022. (GIORGIO VIERA/AFP via Getty Images)

According to Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball, patterns of support between Trump and DeSantis vary among different education and age demographics:

There is a stark education divide among Republican primary voters. A 71% majority of voters with a high school degree or less support Trump in 2024 whereas 14% support DeSantis. A 53% majority of those with a college degree, some college, or associate’s degree  support Trump while 28% support DeSantis. By contrast, Republican voters with a postgraduate degree are most split: 32% support Trump, 29% support DeSantis, and 18% support Mike Pence for the Republican nomination.

 There is also an age divide in the Republican primary: younger voters under 50 break for Trump over DeSantis 67% to 14%, voters between 50 and 64 break for Trump 54% to 32%, while Republicans over 65 are more split: 39% support Trump and 32% DeSantis.

The poll also gauged support among potential 2024 Democrat candidates, finding that President Joe Biden is still the frontrunner despite garnering an approval rating of just 38.7 percent in the survey. Of the 591 respondents polled regarding their candidate preference in the potential 2024 Democrat primary field, 41.5 percent said they would vote for Biden, while Vice President Kamala Harris drew the second highest rate of support at 16.6 percent.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) landed in third place with 11.5 percent of the response, and another 8.9 percent said they would support Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

When asked who they would vote for in a possible general election rematch between Trump and Biden, 40.9 percent said they would back Trump, while 45.1 percent said they would vote for the Democrat. Another 8.5 percent were undecided, and 5.6 percent said they would cast a ballot for a different candidate. Similarly, Biden led DeSantis by a margin of 42.5 percent to 38.8 percent, with 11.2 percent stating they would vote for someone else. Another 8.5 percent were undecided.

Emerson College Polling sampled 1,380 registered voters from November 18-19, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

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