Poll: Donald Trump Holds Commanding Lead in Crowded GOP Primary Field

VANDALIA, OHIO - NOVEMBER 07: Former U.S. President Donald Trump waves at the end of a rally at the Dayton International Airport on November 7, 2022 in Vandalia, Ohio. Trump is in Ohio campaigning for Republican candidates, including U.S. Senate candidate JD Vance, who faces U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) …
Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Former President Donald J. Trump holds a 24-point lead over the rest of the potential 2024 Republican Party primary field, according to a hypothetical poll.

The Morning Consult poll released Tuesday shows that more than half of potential GOP primary voters, 52 percent, want Trump as the nominee. He sits 24 percentage points ahead of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) at 28 percent. No other candidate eclipsed the ten percent mark.

There was virtually no movement between the two leaders compared to last week, which showed Trump with a 25-point lead over the governor, who has not announced a bid for the nomination.

Former Vice President Mike Pence draws seven percent of the response, followed by former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC), who launched her campaign last month, at four percent. Three percent of respondents selected former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY).

Gov. Gregg Abbott (R-TX), Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD), Gov. Glen Youngkin (R-VA), Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are tied at one percent.

The poll also asked Trump voters and DeSantis voters who their second choices would be. A plurality, 48 percent, of Trump voters chose DeSantis as their next option, while another 14 percent selected Pence and 11 percent chose Haley. Similarly, 45 percent of DeSantis voters say Trump is their second option. Pence would take fourteen percent of DeSantis voters, and Haley would pick up six percent.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis answers questions from the media in the Florida Cabinet following his State of the State address during a joint session of the Senate and House of Representatives Tuesday, March 7, 2023, at the Capitol in Tallahassee, Fla. (AP Photo/Phil Sears)

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis answers questions from the media in the Florida Cabinet following his State of the State address during a joint session of the Senate and House of Representatives Tuesday, March 7, 2023, at the Capitol in Tallahassee, FL. (AP Photo/Phil Sears)

Trump and DeSantis are both neck and neck with president Joe Biden in hypothetical head-to-head general election matchups, according to the survey. Biden draws 43 percent in both scenarios, while Trump and DeSantis garner 42 percent. This portion of the poll sampled more than 5,000 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.

The Republican primary portions of the poll included 3,556 potential GOP primary voters with a margin of error of plus or minus three to four percentage points. All samples were collected between March 10-12.

“Our sample of potential Republican primary voters includes any registered voter who said they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in their state in 2024,” Morning Consult senior reporter Eli Yokley noted.

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