Poll: No Bump for DeSantis from Announcement as Trump Still Leads by 34 Points

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis INSET: Donald Trump
AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File/AP Photo/Phil Sears, File
Wendell Husebø

Former President Donald Trump leads the crowded Republican primary field by 34 points over his closest potential competitor, according to a Morning Consult poll that surveyed Republican voters after Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) presidential bid on May 24.

The poll, which sampled respondents from May 26-28, found little movement for DeSantis after he launched a presidential bid last week. It also showed Trump maintaining a large lead over GOP hopefuls.

Fifty-six percent of respondents backed Trump, while only 22 percent supported DeSantis. All other presidential hopefuls were in single digits at five percent or less: Former Vice President Mike Pence (five percent), Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (four percent), and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) (three percent).

While the 34-point lead is slightly less than Trump’s lead earlier in May when the same pollster showed Trump leading by 43 points, that constricting appears to have happened per the pollster before DeSantis’s announcement.

Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis and wife Casey DeSantis arrive for a campaign event at Eternity Church on May 30, 2023 in Clive, Iowa. The event is the first of five in the state the Florida governor is holding over the next two days. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

“Trump leads DeSantis, 56% to 22%, following the Florida governor’s May 24 announcement,” Morning Consult’s Eli Yokley wrote. “The 34-percentage point advantage marks a 10-point decline in the former president’s lead since mid-May, but much of that dip came before DeSantis officially began his bid.”

In other words, that means DeSantis’s announcement–which face serious technical issues on his Twitter Spaces move with Elon Musk–does not seem to have changed the trajectory of the race at all.

DeSantis also performed worse than Trump against Biden in a hypothetical general matchup among all voters. Forty-three percent said they would vote for Biden, while 40 percent backed DeSantis. Meanwhile, the voters split their support behind both Trump and Biden at 43 percent each.

“These numbers may be best considered as a test of electability — a key issue in party primaries that carries all the more significance this time around given concerns about Trump’s baggage and whether the GOP should work to maintain Trump’s coalition or to try to expand its base,” Yokley wrote.

In addition, the poll found Trump is the most popular candidate among GOP hopefuls at 79 percent. Seventy-one percent viewed DeSantis favorably, 57 percent viewed Pence favorably, and 49 percent viewed Haley favorably.

The poll sampled 3,485 potential GOP primary voters from May 26-28 with a 2 point margin of error. Among all voters, the poll sampled about 4,000 registered voters from May 16-28 with a one point margin of error.

Previous Quinnipiac University polling from May 18-22 showed Trump with a 31 point lead. A Monmouth poll found Tuesday a majority of Republican voters believe former Trump is the best Republican presidential primary candidate to defeat Biden in 2024.

Follow Wendell Husebø on Twitter @WendellHusebø. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality.

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