Former President Donald Trump has expanded his lead over his closest challenger, former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC), with four days until the New Hampshire Republican primary.
The latest from the Suffolk University/NBC10 Boston/Boston Globe tracking poll shows Trump comfortably in the lead with 52 percent support. That’s a two-point bump since Wednesday. Haley dropped a point to 35 percent. What had been a 14-point lead is now a 17-point lead.
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) hardly registers, with just six percent support.
“The survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters was conducted from Jan. 17-18. The margin of error is 4.4%,” writes the pollster who releases these results daily.
Granted, a three-point swing in Trump’s direction isn’t much of a swing and might be nothing more than a rounding error. Still, a tracking poll is a tracking poll, making it more useful than a regular one. The best case for Trump in this poll is that he’s expanding his lead over Haley. The worst case for Trump in this poll is still pretty sweet: with only four days to go, Haley is not moving the needle enough to win New Hampshire, which is a must-win state for her.
Trump is also over the magic 50 percent mark, so it really doesn’t matter how close she gets. Elections work like this: fifty percent plus one vote equals victory.
In the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average poll of New Hampshire polls, Trump is up 13.5 points, 46.8 percent to 33.3 percent.
Of the 12 most recent New Hampshire polls, which stretch back to mid-December, Haley has come no closer to Trump than seven points — which was in one poll. The other eleven have Trump leading by double digits.
Another positive sign for Trump is the Haley campaign lowering expectations in New Hampshire. What had been a campaign promising victory — even a landslide victory — is now a campaign claiming it never promised anything more than a “strong second” place showing:
NEW: @ChrisSununu just said Nikki Haley "always wanted to have a strong second" in New Hampshire. “That's the only expectation we ever laid out,” he claims.
Sununu previously promised Haley would “win in a landslide.”
Roll the tape. pic.twitter.com/IEmWUskQyc
— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) January 18, 2024
Sununu set the Haley bar high
12/31/23: "Nikki Haley can … give Trump that defeat that no one thought was possible in the next few weeks. And I think that's very likely to happen."
12/17/23: "Oh, it's an absolute win… If everyone that could vote in the primary comes out and… https://t.co/jZTW3HxnNV
— Matt Wolking (@MattWolking) January 18, 2024
But let’s say Haley pulls off a strong second in New Hampshire this coming Tuesday. Next up is Nevada on February 8. Polling is sparse, but what we do have shows Trump ahead from 30 to 65 points. Then, South Carolina Republicans vote on February 24, where Trump is 30(!) points up in the RCP average poll of South Carolina polls. Haley is staring down the throat of humiliation in her home state.
On paper, New Hampshire should be Nikki Haley Country — a moderate state populated by moderate Republicans who like establishment GOP moderates named Sununu. Nevertheless, at least according to the polls, Trump is running away with it.
With the DeSantis campaign imploding, he is no longer a factor. If the polls (which have so far been pretty accurate) are correct, Trump can dispatch Haley Tuesday and train his fire on Hunter’s dad.
It’s almost certain Trump will be the GOP nominee. But if, by some miracle, Haley does catch fire in New Hampshire, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Strong primary competition is good. It sharpens the eventual candidate.
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