Poll: Donald Trump Leads Joe Biden in Key Swing State of Pennsylvania

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, the latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found.

The survey has been tracking the results between a hypothetical — and increasingly likely — matchup between Trump and Biden in the Keystone State over the last few months.

Trump has maintained an edge over the past three months, leading Biden, 81, by three points in November, seven points in January, and two points in February with 45 percent to Biden’s 43 percent.

Notably, Trump’s lead expands to an even greater margin when put up against Vice President Kamala Harris, leading her by nine points, or 49 percent to her 40 percent:

📊 PENNSYLVANIA POLL: Emerson

Trump 45% (+2)
Biden 43%
—
Trump 42% (+5)
Biden 37%
RFK Jr 8%
West 2%
Stein 1%
—
Trump 49% (+9)
Harris 40%
—
Trump 48% (+15)
Newsom 33%
—
Senate
Casey (D-Inc) 49% (+10)
McCormick (R) 39%
—
R41/D40 | 1,000 RV | 2/14-16https://t.co/XtMPFvYQbl pic.twitter.com/j2H1fAcmpS

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 20, 2024

But the survey also found that Trump’s lead grows when independent candidates are tossed into the mix. In that scenario, Trump sees 42 percent support, while Biden sees 37 percent. Another eight percent support independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr., two percent go to Cornel West, and one percent goes to Jill Stein. Overall, 12 percent remain undecided.

Further, the survey found independents going for Biden by a six-point margin, 41 percent to Trump’s 35 percent, but “men break for Trump over Biden 50% to 41% while women break slightly for Biden over Trump, 44% to 42%,” according to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

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White House

Additionally, the survey found Pennsylvanians identifying the economy as their top issue (40 percent), while another 11 percent said healthcare, and 11 percent said immigration.

The Pennsylvania survey was taken February 14-16, 2024, among 1,000 registered voters, and it has a +/- 3 percent margin of error. It coincides with several other state-level polls telling a similar story: Trump trouncing Biden in key swing states.

A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey released weeks ago, for instance, showed Trump leading Biden in seven out of seven swing states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.