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Breitbart/Gravis Poll: Clinton at 43% Leads Trump at 40%

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The race for president continues be close with Democratic nominee Hillary R. Clinton leading her GOP rival Donald J. Trump with 43 percent of the vote to his 40 percent, according to the Breitbart/Gravis national presidential poll conducted Sept. 7 and Sept. 8 with 2,348 likely voters.

“This is a snapshot of where the race stands just after Labor Day, the traditional beginning of the presidential race’s serious phase,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based firm that executed the poll.

The poll was conducted using automated phone calls and the results were weighted to match a proprietary turnout model. The poll carries a 2 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level.

“We also see that both convention bounces have regressed to the mean,” he said.

In addition to Clinton and Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson has the support of 7 percent of likely voters followed by Green Party nominee Dr. Jill Stein with less than 1 percent.

In the Aug. 10 Breitbart/Gravis poll, Clinton held a 42 percent to 37 percent edge over Trump.

In the Breitbart/Gravis poll conducted Aug. 22 and Aug. 23, Clinton’s lead had tightened to 42 percent over Trump’s 41 percent. That one point margin is now 2.3 points in the most recent survey.

Johnson’s support moved from 4 percent in the poll taken Aug. 22 and Aug. 23 to 7 percent in the most recent poll.

In the 2012 presidential election, President Barack Obama beat Republican Mitt Romney, 51 percent to Romney’s 47 percent. Both Clinton and Trump are lagging behind their party’s last nominees, both by roughly 6.5 points.

Democratic pollster Patrick Caddell told Breitbart News that he senses that the race is settling with neither the Clinton nor the Trump campaign able to break out of the current deadlock.

Respondents were also asked about their attitudes about candidates.

Caddell said it was significant that 37 percent of voters said Trump was sincere in his concern for the inner cities and 54 percent said it was a ploy to win votes.

“Trump’s numbers were very close to Clinton’s, which surprised me,” he said. Forty percent said Clinton’s concern for inner cities was sincere with 51 percent saying it was a ploy to win votes.

One of the concerns with polling in the 2016 cycle is the suspicion that polls are underreporting the strength of the Trump vote, because voters are reacting to social pressures against Trump.

The Breitbart/Gravis poll asked if voters knew individuals personally planning to vote for Trump, but would not say so publicly. Thirty-five percent of likely voters responded: Yes and 41 percent said: No.

Only 26 percent of likely voters said they knew someone personally, who was voting for Clinton, but afraid to say so in public.

Asked about how the candidates are treated by the media, 44 percent said the media treats Clinton more positively than other candidates, compared to only 25 percent of respondents who said Trump was getting positive treatment from the media—52 percent said Trump is treated negatively compared to others.


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