Republican Connecticut Senate candidate Linda McMahon is now essentially tied with Democrat Chris Murphy in a race Democrats felt would be a shoo-in for Murphy, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll.
Murphy leads McMahon by one point in the poll (48% - 47%), and Rasmussen has moved the race from "lean Democrat" to "toss-up."
Two weeks ago, Murphy led by five points. Now, 92% of the state's likely voters say they are certain to vote and among those voters, Murphy and McMahon are tied, with each candidate getting 48%.
Unaffiliated voters make up a majority of Connecticut's registered voters, and among those voters, McMahon leads by 19 points (56% - 37%).
There is also a gender gap, with McMahon leading by 26 points among male voters while Murphy has the same lead among female voters. Rasmussen's poll found married voters preferred McMahon while unmarried voters favored Murphy.
Republicans need a net gain of four seats to control the Senate (or three seats if Romney wins the presidency via the electoral college because Republican Vice President Paul Ryan would be the tiebreaker). And if McMahon could pull out a victory in Connecticut, her win would give Republicans some breathing room and margin for error in the other hotly-contested Senate races.