My pal Guy Benson found a juicy nugget that helps to bring more clarity to the news from Gallup yesterday that shows Romney leading Obama in the early vote by a full seven points, 52-45%. Almost exactly four years ago (October 28, 2008), according to Gallup, Obama was massacring John McCain among early voters with a fifteen-point lead, 55-40%. That means, at least according to Gallup, that Obama's early vote advantage has dropped 22 points when compared to '08.
Benson also notes that the percentage of voters who have or intend to vote early was 33% in 2008 and remains at 33% today. As Don Surber said in this tweet, "People don't wait in line to vote for the status quo[.]"
In his email to me, Benson makes The Point: "Obama had a 55/40 lead on McCain with early voters in '08, but only led by 3 pts with the election day crowd. He ended up winning by 7 overall."
In other words, among those who actually voted on Election Day, Obama's advantage over McCain was only three points. Obama won by seven overall because of the early vote margins he had accumulated. If Gallup is correct about 2012 and Romney being ahead by seven with early voters, that means Obama's in very deep trouble. Even polls that show Obama with a small lead in states like Ohio confirm Romney will win among those who vote on Election Day.
Like me, Benson is skeptical of Gallup because, like its daily tracker that gives Romney a five point lead over Obama nationally, this early voting poll defies the CorruptMedia's conventional wisdom. But there are a few things you have to keep in mind.
1. Gallup is the most respected pollster in the country. Period.
2. As I mentioned in my post yesterday, the CorruptMedia is using CorruptMedia polls to feed the Narrative that says Obama is beating Romney in early voting. Actual vote counts in all-important swing states reported by some media outlets show that's not the case. This includes Florida, Ohio, and Colorado.
3. According to this report, Romney is ahead in early voting in Pennsylvania. Yes, Pennsylvania -- a state that, with plenty of time to go before Election Day, is looking more and more like it's in play. Biden is headed there this week, and a Romney super PAC just invested $2 million in a massive ad buy.
4. Gallup's 2008 survey of early voters interviewed only 1,010 registered voters. Yesterday's early voter poll interviewed over 3,300 -- which makes the 2012 poll even more accurate.
5. "CorruptMedia" is the kindest term I can come up with to describe a pack of degenerate liars who would sell their grandmothers to win Obama a second term.
The CorruptMedia will ignore or dismiss this poll, but it's a serious poll from a serious pollster using a serious sample size.
Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC