How Many of California’s Ballot Initiatives Are Likely to Pass?

California residents will be voting on eleven statewide ballot propositions this election day. Out of the seven propositions most well-known and understood by voters, only one is likely to pass, according to Jon Fleischman of FlashReport. Proposition 32, which Fleischman believes is the most important proposition on the ballot, will be close.

Propositions 30 and 38, which each include an income tax increase to fund public schools, are very unlikely to pass. Fleischman gives 30 about a 25% chance of passing, and thinks 38 will most definitely fail. The two initiatives are very unpopular – especially between each other. The Yes on 38 campaign has ran ads attacking Proposition 30, claiming it would allow Sacramento to spend money intended to fund schools. The ads were later pulled off the air.

Proposition 34 will likely fail as well. Fleischman believes Californians “are not ready to end the death penalty,” and points out that many of those who will be voting no on 34 are already more frustrated about death row inmates not being executed.

Proposition 36, which would modify California’s “Three Strikes Law,” is one that Fleischman thinks will pass. It is polling well, and the “no” side has much less funding than the “yes” side, which is mainly funded by ACLU-type organizations. Many Californians find the Three Strikes Law to be too harsh and believe it needs to have judicial discretion involved.

The controversial Proposition 37, or the Mandatory Labeling of Genetically Engineered Food Initiative, will probably not pass. Its largest donor, osteopathic doctor Joseph Mercola, has long worked with an Illinois trial lawyer notorious for suing California businesses in violation of a previous food labeling proposition that he helped write. He has made millions doing so. Grocery businesses have had to spend about $50 million to defeat 37, a proposition that probably cost $2.5 million to make.

Fleischman thinks Proposition 32, a ban on corporate and union contributions to state and local candidates, will be “too close to call.” Public opinion polls are divided, and both sides are equally well-funded. He believes the result will depend heavily on voter turnout. Obama or Romney clinching the presidency early could also have an effect, as it would lessen turnout among one party.


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