Exclusive--Poll: VA Gov Race A Toss Up
UPDATE [11/5/2013]: With 99% of all precincts reporting, Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe has won the Virginia governor's race with 47.9% of the vote. Republican Ken Cuccinelli has garnered 45.5%. The Wenzel Strategies poll has proven an accurate measure of the final days of the campaign, with Cuccinelli losing by a much smaller margin than other polling firms predicted. RealClearPolitics's average of various polls predicted a McAuliffe win by +6.7. The Washington Post's final poll predicted a +12 McAuliffe win.
A new poll, provided exclusively to Breitbart News, finds the Virginia Governor's race a virtual dead-heat, with Democrat Terry McAuliffe leading Republican Ken Cuccinelli 41%-40%. Libertarian Robert Sarvis garners 10% and 9% of likely voters who remain undecided. With less than two weeks to go, the race is a toss-up that will likely be decided by turnout, a critical factor in an off-year election.
The poll comes from Wenzel Strategies, which accurately predicted closing momentum for Sens. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Deb Fischer, among others. The slight edge McAuliffe holds is due mostly to stronger support within his partisan base. 81% of Democrats support McAuliffe, against just 68% of Republicans who support Cuccinelli.
Cuccinelli's support seems be building, however, as public attention moves away from the recent government shutdown to the failing implementation of ObamaCare. Cuccinelli was a leading national figure suing to overturn the health care law.
The closeness of the race is apparent in the millions spent by left-wing groups to support McAuliffe in the closing days. In addition, Hillary and Bill Clinton, close allies of McAuliffe, have made themselves permanent fixtures in the Commonwealth, campaigning on his behalf.
“There’s a reason the Clintons have been called in to spend a week campaigning for McAuliffe and that Bloomberg is pouring in millions with 2 weeks to go,” Brian Baker, President of Ending Spending Action Fund, which commissioned the poll, told Breitbart News. “Their internals must be showing what our poll indicates -- that his unfavorables are high and they must try to suppress Cuccinelli turnout to prevail. All indications are that the numbers are closing, especially post shutdown. The focus will be where the undecideds go and what will Sarvis draw? With the race this close, the poll indicates a vote for Sarvis is a vote for McAuliffe.”
History also is on Cuccinelli's side. Since the 1980s, the winner of the Virginia Governor's race has always been from the opposite party of that occupying the White House.