Kershaw, Scherzer Top Leagues in Final Value Add of 233 Pitchers

Despite missing a half dozen starts this season, David Price surged to a No. 34 ranking in the www.valueaddbaseball.com database after winning the final start of the season and 4,728th start in the database. Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer finished as the top pitchers in their respective leagues by winning 86% of their starts in which they received any run support. Both deserve the Cy Young Awards they should be receiving shortly, though Scherzer received far more support.

The Dodgers gave Kershaw no chance to win (a 0.00 ERA Needed to win) in one-third (11 of 33 starts) of his starts. He won 19 of the other 22 starts, with support that would have resulted in just over seven wins if a replacement pitcher was pitching instead of him, so he added 11.71 Wins to the Dodgers win total this season. If Kershaw was out this season, Value Add projects the Dodgers would have finished tied with Arizona instead of winning the NL West by 11 games. In the 11 games in which Kershaw was given no chance, he saved the bullpen by averaging 6 2/3rds innings and only 1.7 earned runs, which gives him an adjustment of almost four to yield his MLB best 15.37 Value Add.

There were only three games in which the Tigers gave Scherzer no chance to win. However, he won 25 of the other 29 starts. While he received very strong support in those games, it is likely the Tigers would have only won about 11 of those games with a replacement pitcher, so he was worth an estimated 14.18 additional wins (the Raw Value Add) to the team. That would have left the Tigers 79-83 and nowhere near the playoffs.

An MLB team with an average line-up and bullpen would go about 53-109 if their starting rotation were all replacement players. Here are the final rankings for all 233 pitchers to start at least five games this season.

Rnk Player Team Wins Added to Team Value Add
1 Clayton Kershaw LAD 11.71 15.37
2 Patrick Corbin ARI 13.21 14.81
3 Max Scherzer DET 14.18 14.58
4 Mat Latos CIN 11.93 14.06
5 Chris Sale CHW 9.26 14.06
6 Adam Wainwright STL 12.64 13.78
7 James Shields KC 11.69 13.69
8 Julio Teheran ATL 11.77 13.30
9 Jordan Zimmermann WSH 12.02 13.22
10 Cliff Lee PHI 10.53 13.13
11 Hisashi Iwakuma SEA 10.46 12.79
12 Zack Greinke LAD 12.19 12.39
13 Jhoulys Chacin COL 9.54 11.74
14 Hiroki Kuroda NYY 9.99 11.73
15 Doug Fister DET 9.01 11.61
16 Chris Tillman BAL 10.06 11.46
17 Yu Darvish TEX 9.65 11.45
18 Bartolo Colon OAK 10.65 11.25
19 Madison Bumgarner SF 8.15 11.02
20 Jorge De La Rosa COL 10.24 10.97
21 Derek Holland TEX 8.50 10.97
22 C.J. Wilson LAA 9.13 10.86
23 A.J. Griffin OAK 9.47 10.80
24 Kris Medlen ATL 9.93 10.66
25 Jeremy Guthrie KC 9.10 10.63
26 Shelby Miller STL 9.66 10.53
27 Ricky Nolasco LAD 8.08 10.41
28 Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD 9.45 10.38
29 Mark Buehrle TOR 9.44 10.38
30 R.A. Dickey TOR 9.14 10.34
31 Jose Fernandez MIA 9.43 10.29
32 John Lackey BOS 7.38 10.11
33 Mike Minor ATL 8.72 9.92
34 David Price TB 7.87 9.87
35 Ubaldo Jimenez CLE 9.00 9.87
36 Kyle Lohse MIL 8.04 9.84
37 Mike Leake CIN 8.99 9.79
38 Homer Bailey CIN 8.05 9.79
39 Jon Lester BOS 9.07 9.73
40 Matt Harvey NYM 7.19 9.52
41 Clay Buchholz BOS 9.04 9.24
42 Cole Hamels PHI 5.94 9.21
43 Jered Weaver LAA 8.40 9.14
44 Justin Verlander DET 5.66 9.12
45 Anibal Sanchez DET 7.96 8.89
46 Dillon Gee NYM 7.82 8.89
47 Ervin Santana KC 7.46 8.86
48 Felix Hernandez SEA 5.51 8.71
49 Jarrod Parker OAK 6.50 8.70
50 Miguel Gonzalez BAL 7.62 8.69
51 Rick Porcello DET 7.79 8.66
52 Francisco Liriano PIT 8.25 8.65
53 Bronson Arroyo CIN 7.50 8.57
54 Jeff Samardzija CHC 5.93 8.46
55 A.J. Burnett PIT 6.35 8.41
56 Jose Quintana CHW 6.56 8.22
57 Ryan Dempster BOS 6.25 8.05
58 Travis Wood CHC 5.85 8.05
59 Justin Masterson CLE 7.49 7.96
60 Lance Lynn STL 7.08 7.88
61 Matt Moore TB 7.62 7.88
62 Matt Garza TEX 7.48 7.88
63 Andrew Cashner SD 5.50 7.70
64 Gio Gonzalez WSH 5.76 7.69
65 CC Sabathia NYY 7.34 7.68
66 Ivan Nova NYY 6.20 7.54
67 Kyle Kendrick PHI 5.08 7.15
68 Kevin Correia MIN 5.15 7.08
69 Tim Lincecum SF 5.24 7.04
70 Eric Stults SD 5.30 6.96
71 Felix Doubront BOS 5.74 6.81
72 Martin Perez TEX 6.16 6.76
73 Marco Estrada MIL 5.75 6.75
74 Randall Delgado ARI 5.77 6.57
75 Matt Cain SF 2.84 6.57
76 Scott Feldman BAL 5.92 6.46
77 Andy Pettitte NYY 4.77 6.44
78 Wily Peralta MIL 4.84 6.31
79 Jake Peavy BOS 5.50 6.23
80 Gerrit Cole PIT 5.76 6.22
81 Jeff Locke PIT 4.66 6.06
82 Joe Kelly STL 5.56 6.03
83 Alex Cobb TB 5.10 5.97
84 Dan Straily OAK 5.10 5.97
85 Tommy Milone OAK 4.44 5.90
86 Corey Kluber CLE 4.81 5.87
87 Yovani Gallardo MIL 4.46 5.73
88 Bud Norris BAL 4.33 5.73
89 Paul Maholm ATL 3.71 5.65
90 Wade Miley ARI 4.78 5.52
91 Bruce Chen KC 4.88 5.48
92 Tim Hudson ATL 4.61 5.41
93 Charlie Morton PIT 4.19 5.39
94 Samuel Deduno MIN 4.92 5.39
95 Stephen Strasburg WSH 3.19 5.19
96 Jonathon Niese NYM 3.37 5.17
97 Jonathan Pettibone PHI 5.02 5.08
98 Zach McAllister CLE 4.59 4.86
99 Nate Eovaldi MIA 3.84 4.84
100 Alexi Ogando TEX 3.93 4.79
101 Jeremy Hellickson TB 4.64 4.78
102 Jason Vargas LAA 4.16 4.69
103 Trevor Cahill ARI 3.26 4.59
104 Jason Marquis SD 4.05 4.59
105 David Phelps NYY 3.85 4.39
106 Ian Kennedy ARI 3.48 4.28
107 Jerome Williams LAA 2.59 4.19
108 Hector Santiago CHW 1.96 4.16
109 Wei-Yin Chen BAL 3.89 4.09
110 Dallas Keuchel HOU 1.93 4.06
111 Scott Kazmir CLE 3.72 4.06
112 Jake Westbrook STL 2.53 4.00
113 Tyler Chatwood COL 2.58 3.98
114 Chris Archer TB 3.92 3.92
115 Yusmeiro Petit SF 3.78 3.85
116 Tony Cingrani CIN 2.54 3.74
117 Brandon McCarthy ARI 1.99 3.72
118 Dan Haren WSH 2.35 3.62
119 Ross Ohlendorf WSH 3.17 3.57
120 Jarred Cosart HOU 2.70 3.50
121 Brett Oberholtzer HOU 2.85 3.45
122 Henderson Alvarez MIA 2.43 3.36
123 Jaime Garcia STL 2.29 3.23
124 Zack Wheeler NYM 2.82 3.22
125 Freddy Garcia ATL 2.31 3.11
126 Tyson Ross SD 1.43 3.10
127 Jake Arrieta CHC 2.82 3.02
128 Juan Nicasio COL 2.06 3.00
129 Tom Koehler MIA 1.77 2.97
130 Wandy Rodriguez PIT 2.34 2.94
131 Garrett Richards LAA 1.91 2.91
132 Sonny Gray OAK 2.50 2.90
133 Jason Hammel BAL 2.57 2.84
134 Mike Pelfrey MIN 1.54 2.81
135 John Danks CHW 1.67 2.80
136 Joe Saunders SEA 1.31 2.71
137 Jordan Lyles HOU 1.42 2.69
138 Edinson Volquez LAD 1.21 2.61
139 Esmil Rogers TOR 2.19 2.59
140 Edwin Jackson CHC 1.64 2.58
141 Johnny Cueto CIN 1.74 2.54
142 Jacob Turner MIA 1.80 2.47
143 Tyler Thornburg MIL 1.87 2.47
144 Robbie Erlin SD 2.09 2.35
145 Dylan Axelrod CHW 0.85 2.32
146 Erasmo Ramirez SEA 1.49 2.23
147 Chad Gaudin SF 1.80 2.20
148 Ross Detwiler WSH 1.38 2.18
149 Jeremy Hefner NYM 0.58 2.18
150 Jon Garland COL 1.94 2.14
151 Wade Davis KC 1.17 1.83
152 Daisuke Matsuzaka NYM 1.81 1.81
153 Chris Capuano LAD 1.34 1.80
154 Roberto Hernandez TB 0.30 1.76
155 Brandon Cumpton PIT 1.67 1.67
156 John Lannan PHI 1.66 1.66
157 Todd Redmond TOR 1.11 1.64
158 Tanner Roark WSH 1.22 1.62
159 Alfredo Aceves BOS 1.61 1.61
160 Taylor Jordan WSH 0.88 1.61
161 Kevin Slowey MIA 1.07 1.61
162 Justin Grimm TEX 1.07 1.60
163 Lucas Harrell HOU -0.43 1.50
164 Chris Rusin CHC 0.23 1.23
165 Brandon Morrow TOR 0.95 1.22
166 Jeremy Bonderman SEA 0.61 1.21
167 James McDonald PIT 0.78 1.18
168 Carlos Villanueva CHC 0.55 1.09
169 Tyler Lyons STL 0.82 1.02
170 Erik Johnson CHW 1.00 1.00
171 Stephen Fife LAD 0.78 0.98
172 Brandon Beachy ATL 0.98 0.98
173 Michael Wacha STL 0.32 0.92
174 Andre Riezno CHW 0.31 0.91
175 Josh Lindblom TEX 0.62 0.82
176 Brett Anderson OAK 0.33 0.73
177 Liam Hendriks MIN 0.50 0.70
178 P.J. Walters MIN 0.41 0.61
179 Jeanmar Gomez PIT 0.60 0.60
180 Aaron Harang NYM -0.61 0.59
181 Tyler Skaggs ARI 0.55 0.55
182 Jenrry Mejia NYM 0.33 0.53
183 Alex Sanabia MIA 0.26 0.46
184 Shaun Marcum NYM -0.83 0.43
185 Tommy Hanson LAA 0.13 0.40
186 Carlos Torres NYM 0.16 0.36
187 Alex Wood ATL 0.16 0.36
188 Brandon Maurer SEA -0.95 0.31
189 Andrew Albers MIN -0.50 0.30
190 Kevin Gausman BAL 0.29 0.29
191 Jose Alvarez DET 0.13 0.26
192 Zach Britton BAL 0.12 0.12
193 Chien-Ming Wang TOR 0.11 0.11
194 Danny Salazar CLE -0.14 0.06
195 Vance Worley MIN -0.40 -0.20
196 Roy Halladay PHI -0.64 -0.24
197 Luis Mendoza KC -0.59 -0.26
198 Greg Reynolds CIN -0.46 -0.26
199 Barry Zito SF -0.78 -0.31
200 Nick Tepesch TEX -0.67 -0.40
201 Paul Clemens HOU -0.73 -0.40
202 Danny Duffy KC -0.41 -0.41
203 Kyle Gibson MIN -0.41 -0.41
204 Scott Diamond MIN -1.22 -0.42
205 Ryan Vogelsong SF -0.65 -0.45
206 Hiram Burgos MIL -0.85 -0.45
207 Josh Johnson TOR -1.26 -0.46
208 Alfredo Figaro MIL -0.53 -0.53
209 Burch Smith SD -0.76 -0.56
210 Pedro Hernandez MIN -0.59 -0.59
211 J.A. Happ TOR -1.73 -0.60
212 Josh Beckett LAD -1.28 -0.62
213 Brad Peacock HOU -0.89 -0.69
214 Erik Bedard HOU -2.42 -0.89
215 Ted Lilly LAD -0.89 -0.89
216 Gavin Floyd CHW -1.30 -0.90
217 Phil Hughes NYY -2.75 -0.95
218 Jeff Francis COL -1.08 -1.08
219 Collin McHugh COL -1.10 -1.10
220 Chad Bettis COL -1.18 -1.11
221 Tom Gorzelanny MIL -1.66 -1.19
222 Philip Humber HOU -1.96 -1.23
223 Donovan Hand MIL -1.63 -1.23
224 Joe Blanton LAA -2.87 -1.41
225 Matt Magill LAD -1.75 -1.42
226 Carlos Carrasco CLE -1.97 -1.51
227 Tyler Cloyd PHI -1.53 -1.53
228 Allen Webster BOS -1.65 -1.65
229 Wade LeBlanc MIA -1.76 -1.76
230 Roy Oswalt COL -1.87 -1.87
231 Johnny Hellweg MIL -2.02 -2.02
232 Ethan Martin PHI -2.34 -2.34
233 Clayton Richard SD -2.74 -2.34

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