Each day seems to bring a new round of bad polling news for Obama. Especially considering that most of these polls are still using a registered, not likely, voter screen. Polls of registered voters generally give Democrat candidates a boost of a couple percentage points. Recent polls have shown tight races in traditionally Democrat strongholds like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. But, today’s ABC/WashPost poll may be the most ominous for the Obama campaign.
The poll, conducted Thursday-Sunday, found that 56% of Independent voters disapproved of Obama’s economic policies. Only 36% viewed his policies favorably. Keep in mind, this is about Obama’s specific economic plan, not some general view of the state of the overall economy. 51% of all registered voters disapproved of Obama’s economic policies. While part of this poll was conducted after Obama’s “private sector is going fine” gaffe, its not clear whether that had an impact or whether voters’ disapproval of Obama’s policies was already set.
Obama has had the full benefit of the bully pulpit and a compliant media to make the case for his policies with voters. And, ABC/WashPost polls have been known to put a thumb on the scale of their polls to help Obama. At some point you realize that the message itself is the problem.
Absent an unlikely strong economic recovery over the next few months, its hard to see what else Obama can do to sway Independent voters. The probable scorched-earth campaign against Romney will help some, no doubt. But, with Independent voters opposing his policies by a twenty-point margin, it likely won’t be enough to save Obama.