A new Quinnipiac poll of Ohio shows Hillary Clinton trailing every potential Republican rival in November. She loses badly to home state Governor John Kasich, but now trails even Donald Trump in the critical must-win general election state.
“The four leading Republican candidates either tie or lead former Secretary Clinton in Ohio, considered the best microcosm of the national electorate and a must-win for the GOP. Republicans have never won the White House without carrying Ohio,” Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll, said in a release.
Hillary Clinton faces two particular challenges in bellweather Ohio. She is extraordinarily unpopular with white men and doesn’t fare well enough with women voters to make up the difference. In fact, Clinton has a net unfavorable rating with all women. Among white women, she is even more unpopular.
Interestingly, Bernie Sanders does better against potential Republican rivals among women than Hillary Clinton.
Clinton bests Cruz among women by eight points, but Sanders beats him by 12 points. Clinton loses white women to Cruz by five points, while Sanders edges Cruz with white women by two points.
Clinton does best with women voters against Donald Trump, beating him by 13 points. Sanders beats Trump among women by 12 points, but edges him among white women by two points. Trump beats Clinton among white women by one point.
Except for her potential head-to-head matchup against Trump, Clinton does worse among women voters than Barack Obama in 2012. Clinton’s potential historic campaign as the first female Presidential candidate also comes, no doubt, with an historic amount of political baggage.
That baggage results in her performing much worse among white men than Obama did in 2012. White men make up almost 40 percent of the vote in Ohio, and she is losing to all potential Republicans by landslide margins. She is -32 against Cruz, -48 against Kasich, -34 against Rubio, and -35 against Trump.
In contrast, Barack Obama lost white men in Ohio by just 26 points. Bernie Sanders fares better than both with white men against Republicans.
As Clinton has felt threatened by Bernie Sanders in the Democrat primary, she has embraced her candidacy as a historic step for women in the United States. She has made gender issues more central to her campaign. This has likely alienated male voters, but she hasn’t attracted enough female support to balance this out.
Quinnipiac also tested a potential third-party run by New York billionaire Michael Bloomberg. The poll didn’t test Bloomberg in every potential match-up, but in two scenarios that would seem to be most favorable to his quixotic bid for the White House.
In a three-way race between Sanders, Cruz, and Bloomberg, Sanders and Cruz are tied at 37 percent, while Bloomberg gets 11 percent. In a hypothetical race between Sanders, Trump, and Bloomberg, Trump edges Sanders 38-35, while Bloomberg gets 13 percent.
Without Bloomberg in the race, Sanders beats Cruz by two points and is tied with Trump. Bloomberg’s entrance into the race improves Republican fortunes in the state.
Clinton’s only real base of support in Ohio is among African-American voters. She is viewed favorably by 89 percent of black voters, almost three times the 30 percent of white voters who have a positive view of her.
Obama’s narrow win in Ohio in 2012 was fueled, in part, by an historic turnout of black voters. It is unlikely Clinton will benefit from such a turnout.
If Clinton cannot improve her standing in Ohio, she cannot win the White House. The personal sometimes trumps the historic.