This has been a long night- and with the GOP taking the House, yet the Dems keeping the Senate, there is going to be a great deal of ‘negotiating’ having to be done over what will the new DoD look like. With the CO Senate race still undecided, we will have to wait probably a week before we can see how the Senate will shake out and affect things.
The primary groups that will affect DoD will be the House Armed Services Committee, Ways and Means, Appropriations, and to a lesser extent, the Intel Committee. Since the GOP will have the chairs of these committees in the House, and Dems in the Senate, getting bills passed thru them is going to be a hard, long slog. I am betting that no one will have agendas that match; either in budget cutting or in appropriating spending programs. Sec’y Gates’ proposal to remove JFCOM will have a much more difficult time, for example.
With Ike Skelton, the Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee losing re-election, ‘Buck’ McKeon, the ranking Republican, will likely assume party chairmanship. Being from California, home base to a large defense industry and a state still reeling from budget problems, you can bet there will be changes in how DoD is funded. Plus, committee makeup (how many each party has as members) will drastically change. It remains to be seen if any of the ‘newbies’ elected last night will gain seats on these highly-coveted committees. I’m betting Rep. Coffman will get the Intel committee seat he has been seeking.
Even more concerning is how this is going to affect the purported ‘pullout’ that Pres. Obama is wanting in Afghanistan next summer. With a GOP speaker in the House who will have the attention of the media and basically be the ‘voice’ of the GOP overall, it is going to be an extremely difficult battle over what we will do there. Gen Petraeus, you have your work cut out for you. And yes, I get that he answers to the President, but his G8 guys (budget, basically) have to work with the Congress.
The power battles with the Senate are going to be quite interesting. Will the C-17 get more funding? Will FCS keep rolling along in any fashion? Carl Levin holds onto his chairmanship of the SASC, but his battles with the House side are going to get interesting.
On The Border:
Apart from the battles in Afghanistan (and, I’m betting, back in Iraq at some point) the next big agenda item will be the southern US border. This will be where the House is likely to push their agenda to get immigration ‘fixed’ at some point. By securing the border, and by securing I mean more National Guard troops patrolling it with DHS/Border Patrol, we could see real changes in what we are doing down there. The current mission is strictly observe and report; pressure from the House could be brought on the Prez to do more. Whether or not Obama does a Clinton-esque turn and meet the GOP halfway on immigration and border security is anyone’s guess.
This is going to be where Big Peace can bring information to you- the next 2 years are going to be busy here.
Now, the question remains- what damage will a lame-duck Congress do to the DoD? DADT, anyone?
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