Surprise Stars Among 2015-16 Military Hoops Rosters

On Memorial Day it is obvious the top Value Add basketball players at each Military Academy have a lot to balance.

Kendall Knorr of Navy tweeted this month, “With these 6 exams in the next three days, I might as well have been thrown in the ring against @FloydMayweather.” Dylan Cox (Army) and Trevor Lyons (Air Force) likely feel the same sometimes.

All 351 rosters for 2015-16 teams were updated this weekend, and edits can be made by clicking on the public google doc here. The three players above all rate as potential breakout players if they get minutes this year.

Army has a great quartet that could give the Black Knights their best chance ever to beat out Lehigh and American for the Patriot League title and their first NCAA bid. Only five of the original D1 programs have never made the NCAA tournament.

Cox does not shoot as much as his three excellent teammates, but 34% of the time they score it is on an assist from him. (He usually wears No. 3, but wore No. 1 in this photo).

While Kevin Ferguson, Kyle Wilson and Tanner Plomb are excellent players as well and all made the 2nd or 3rd all-Patriot League team, Value Add calculates Cox was the true motor. He assisted 34% of the time one of the others scored, and was one of fewer than 3% of all players to hit more than 60% of his two-point shots to help Army jump to updates of St. Francis of NY and USC and a 9-2 mark before fading late.

The Midshipman have struggled since the glory days of David Robinson, but they took great glee in ending Army’s hopes for a bid with a 56-52 win at Annapolis (the place Charles Barkley apparently thought the NCAA Final Four was being held) – completing the sweep.

However, Knorr will need to get a lot more minutes with All-Conference player Worth Smith graduating. Knorr will be a surprise top pick for many at Navy as he missed first semester and does not handle the ball that well, but Value Add shows he could be the top break out player as his 111 offensive rating at www.kenpom.com would rank among the national leaders if he played more minutes. He is one of those players that goes unnoticed because he has done everything well over his career – low turnovers, good steals without fouling, 82% career free throws.

In the upset win at Army he hit 11 of 13 free throws, all three two-pointers, grabbed five rebounds and had two assists and a steal.

Air Force could have one of the top Value Add duos around if Lyons (top 8% of all players) builds on his hot finish the last six games in which he averaged three assists and three steals a game while hitting five of 10 three-pointers. Zach Kocur (top 16%) hit 4 of 9 three-pointers in a 20-point outing to stun New Mexico in the opening round of the very tough Mountain West Conference Tournament.

The Falcons have produced by far the best players of any of the Military Academies in the all-time Value Add database, but Value Add projects them behind strong programs from San Diego State, Utah State, UNLV, Fresno State, Boise State, Colorado State and New Mexico.

The following are all of the 2015-16 players in the database for the three Military Academies, and corrections can be made by clicking on the database and typing in notes by the player or missing players.

Rnk Projected 2015-16 players Team Ht Yr Value Add
304 Lyons, Trevor 20 Air Force 6’3 2 So 4.48
542 Cox, Dylan 11 Army 6’4 4 Sr 3.29
618 Kocur, Zach 5 Air Force 6’3 3 Jr 3.03
881 Ferguson, Kevin 31 Army 6’10 4 Sr 2.41
1009 Omlid, Tanner 55 Army 6’3 3 Jr 2.17
1030 Plomb, Tanner 32 Army 6’7 4 Sr 2.14
1612 Knorr, Kendall 3 Navy 6’3 4 Sr 1.31
1750 Wilson, Kyle 21 Army 6’4 4 Sr 1.20
2242 Siples, C.J. 2 Air Force 6’3 2 So 0.91
2301 Graham, Hayden 35 Air Force 6’5 3 Jr 0.85
2321 Edwards, Kennedy 10 Army 6’6 3 Jr 0.83
2333 Brown, Richard 1 Army 6’6 2 So 0.81
2365 James, Dezmond 24 Air Force 6’4 2 So 0.77
2380 Kelly, Will 0 Navy 6’9 4 Sr 0.74
2474 Morrison, Billy 25 Army 6’6 2 So 0.61
2502 Coggins, Tre’ Air Force 6’2 3 Jr 0.57
2524 Vermeer, Grant 22 Navy 6’2 3 Jr 0.54
2556 Toomey, Larry 33 Army 6’6 4 Sr 0.50
2624 Hemphill, James 32 Navy 6’6 3 Jr 0.42
2675 Anderson, Shawn 20 Navy 6’4 2 So 0.32
2707 Parker, Darrius Air Force 6’7 2 So 0.26
2713 Noe, Daniel 35 Navy 6’5 2 So 0.26
2744 Moer, Zach 41 Air Force 6’11 4 Sr 0.23
2810 Hoffman, Mac 20 Army 6’8 3 Jr 0.17
2906 Alade, Edward 33 Navy 6’9 3 Jr 0.10
2914 Broekhuis, Kyle 25 Air Force 6’7 3 Jr 0.09
2949 Lacey, Tom 31 Navy 6’7 2 So 0.07
NR Brown, Michael 25 Navy 6’4 3 Jr 0.00
NR Dodge, Nathan 35 Army 6’2 2 So 0.00
NR Dulin, Bryce 24 Navy 6’4 2 So 0.00
NR Dunbar, Tilman 10 Navy 5’10 4 Sr 0.00
NR Fong, Zach 12 Navy 5’11 3 Jr 0.00
NR Fox, Nourse 1 Navy 6’0 2 So 0.00
NR Hogan, Jace 44 Navy 6’6 2 So 0.00
NR Jordan, Kieffer 41 Army 6’10 3 Jr 0.00
NR Mammel, Scott 3 Army 5’11 3 Jr 0.00
NR Manning, Ryan 32 Air Force 6’6 2 So 0.00
NR Pollack, Mark 44 Army 6’6 2 So 0.00
NR Washington, Milton 5 Army 6’0 4 Sr 0.00


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