As prep for our March Madness predictions, we lay out the basics for the 85 teams with even a faint hope of being one of the 68 selected Sunday. This sheet gives each team’s Sagarin rating, a plus or minus for whether they finished the season hot or cold, and the Value Add of any key players who are injured for returning from injury based on Don’s Best report.
Michigan State’s rating is easily the best going into the tournament at 98.0. The next best teams once adjusting for injuries and how hot teams are leaves North Carolina at No. 2 at 95.5, followed by Kansas (95.2), West Virginia (94.0), Virginia (93.0), and Kentucky (92.5).
For example, both Akron and Alabama have a 78-point Value from Sagarin, and both finished the season cold enough for a minus 2, meaning their predictive rating if either received a surprise pick to the tournament would be a 76.0.
Arizona has two valuable players who missed part of the season (Kaleb Tarczewski and Allonzo Trier), who are therefore really more valuable per game than their Value Add rating in the database shows. With them back from injuries, Arizona is 1.8 points better than their rating based on their season results would indicated. However, a negative indicates a player who did play some is not expected to play — and in this case the absence of Elliott Pitts subtracts 0.2 from the team’s rating, so when we adjust Arizona’s Sagarin rating of 89 by those three player adjustments Arizona has a 90.6 rating heading into the tournament.
If Akron or Alabama received a surprise bid and played Arizona, Arizona would be projected to win by 14.6 points (90.6 rating minus 76.0).
Once the actual bids come out Sunday evening we will refer to these ratings as we fill in the projected brackets.
| Possible Bid | Sagarin, Hot or Cold | Val/Gm | Healthy/Out | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron | 78 – 2 | 76.0 | ||
| Alabama | 78 – 2 | 76.0 | ||
| Arizona | Tarczewski, Kaleb 35 | 4.69 | 1.1 | |
| Arizona | Trier, Allonzo 11 | 3.69 | 0.7 | |
| Arizona | Pitts, Elliott 24 | 0.95 | -0.2 | |
| Arizona | 89 + 0 | 90.6 | ||
| Arkansas Little Rock | 79 + 0 | 79.0 | ||
| Austin Peay | 67 + 2 | 69.0 | ||
| Baylor | 86 + 2 | 88.0 | ||
| Buffalo | Bearden, Lamonte 1 | 3.11 | 0.5 | |
| Buffalo | 74 + 1 | 75.5 | ||
| Butler | Lewis, Tyler 1 | 1.99 | 0.3 | |
| Butler | 86 + 1 | 87.3 | ||
| BYU | Toolson, Jake 15 | 0.44 | -0.1 | |
| BYU | 84 + 0 | 83.9 | ||
| Cal St. Bakersfield | Airington, Jaylin 11 | 2.66 | 0.7 | |
| Cal St. Bakersfield | Mays, Kevin 10 | 4.66 | 0.6 | |
| Cal St. Bakersfield | 75 + 1 | 77.3 | ||
| California | Wallace, Tyrone 3 | 4.56 | 0.6 | |
| California | 86 + 2 | 88.6 | ||
| Chattanooga | Jones, Casey 24 | 0.60 | -0.1 | |
| Chattanooga | 77 + 0 | 76.9 | ||
| Cincinnati | 85 + 0 | 85.0 | ||
| Colorado | 82 + 1 | 83.0 | ||
| Connecticut | Brimah, Amida 35 | 3.52 | 1.2 | |
| Connecticut | 86 + 2 | 89.2 | ||
| Dayton | Pierre, Dyshawn 21 | 4.97 | 1.8 | |
| Dayton | Pollard, Kendall 25 | 1.75 | 0.3 | |
| Dayton | 83 – 2 | 83.1 | ||
| Duke | Jefferson, Amile 21 | 4.91 | -1.5 | |
| Duke | 89 – 2 | 85.5 | ||
| Fairleigh Dickinson | 64 + 0 | 64.0 | ||
| Florida | 85 – 1 | 84.0 | ||
| Florida Gulf Coast | Morant, Demetris 21 | 0.74 | 0.2 | |
| Florida Gulf Coast | 70 + 2 | 72.2 | ||
| Fresno St. | Jones, Torren 24 | 2.38 | -1.5 | |
| Fresno St. | 76 + 2 | 76.5 | ||
| George Washington | 80 + 0 | 80.0 | ||
| Georgia | 80 + 1 | 81.0 | ||
| Gonzaga | Karnowski, Przemek 24 | 1.53 | -0.3 | |
| Gonzaga | 87 + 1 | 87.7 | ||
| Green Bay | 74 + 2 | 76.0 | ||
| Hampton | Chievous, Quinton 3 | 4.39 | 1.0 | |
| Hampton | Pressley, Jervon 30 | 0.47 | 0.1 | |
| Hampton | 65 + 0 | 66.1 | ||
| Hawaii | Valdes, Aaron 32 | 4.26 | 1.0 | |
| Hawaii | Smith, Quincy 11 | 1.71 | 0.2 | |
| Hawaii | Fleming, Isaac 0 | 2.60 | -1.8 | |
| Hawaii | 80 + 0 | 79.3 | ||
| Hofstra | Nichols, Malik 0 | 0.96 | -0.6 | |
| Hofstra | 77 + 0 | 76.4 | ||
| Holy Cross | 64 + 0 | 64.0 | ||
| Indiana | Johnson, Robert 4 | 2.54 | 0.2 | |
| Indiana | Blackmon, James 1 | 4.69 | -2.0 | |
| Indiana | 89 + 2 | 89.2 | ||
| Iona | English, AJ 5 | 7.18 | 1.0 | |
| Iona | Casimir, Schadrac 4 | 0.82 | -0.1 | |
| Iona | 77 + 2 | 79.9 | ||
| Iowa | Jones, Dale 1 | 0.45 | -0.1 | |
| Iowa | 88 – 2 | 85.9 | ||
| Iowa St. | Mitrou-Long, Nazareth 15 | 0.69 | -0.2 | |
| Iowa St. | Morris, Monte 11 | 7.38 | -0.2 | |
| Iowa St. | 88 + 0 | 87.6 | ||
| Kansas | Diallo, Cheick 13 | 0.93 | 0.2 | |
| Kansas | 93 + 2 | 95.2 | ||
| Kentucky | Poythress, Alex 22 | 3.90 | 0.5 | |
| Kentucky | 90 + 2 | 92.5 | ||
| Maryland | 87 – 2 | 85.0 | ||
| Memphis | Woodson, Avery 3 | 3.17 | -0.1 | |
| Miami FL | 89 + 0 | 89.0 | ||
| Michigan | Albrecht, Spike 2 | 0.44 | -0.1 | |
| Michigan | LeVert, Caris 23 | 8.03 | -3.7 | |
| Michigan | 84 + 0 | 80.2 | ||
| Michigan St. | Valentine, Denzil 45 | 10.40 | 1.7 | |
| Michigan St. | Goins, Kenny 25 | 1.26 | 0.2 | |
| Michigan St. | Nairn, Lourawls 11 | 0.39 | 0.1 | |
| Michigan St. | 93 + 3 | 98.0 | ||
| Middle Tennessee | Potts, Giddy 20 | 6.75 | 1.6 | |
| Middle Tennessee | Simpson, Edward 11 | 0.42 | -0.4 | |
| Middle Tennessee | Ivory, Jacob 5 | 0.81 | -0.4 | |
| Middle Tennessee | 75 + 2 | 77.8 | ||
| Monmouth | 79 – 1 | 78.0 | ||
| Montana | 73 + 0 | 73.0 | ||
| North Carolina | Meeks, Kennedy 3 | 3.80 | 0.8 | |
| North Carolina | Paige, Marcus 5 | 4.07 | 0.7 | |
| North Carolina | 92 + 2 | 95.5 | ||
| Northern Iowa | 80 + 3 | 83.0 | ||
| Notre Dame | 84 + 1 | 85.0 | ||
| Oklahoma | 90 + 0 | 90.0 | ||
| Oregon | 87 + 3 | 90.0 | ||
| Oregon St. | Tinkle, Tres 3 | 5.36 | -4.6 | |
| Oregon St. | 81 + 0 | 76.4 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 85 + 0 | 85.0 | ||
| Princeton | 80 – 1 | 79.0 | ||
| Providence | 82 + 2 | 84.0 | ||
| Purdue | 90 + 2 | 92.0 | ||
| Saint Joseph’s | Ndao, Papa 12 | 1.45 | 0.2 | |
| Saint Joseph’s | 82 – 1 | 81.2 | ||
| Saint Mary’s | 85 + 1 | 86.0 | ||
| San Diego St. | 83 + 2 | 85.0 | ||
| Seton Hall | 84 + 3 | 87.0 | ||
| South Carolina | Carrera, Michael 24 | 5.73 | 0.2 | |
| South Carolina | 82 – 1 | 81.2 | ||
| South Dakota St. | Marshall, George 11 | 5.35 | 1.2 | |
| South Dakota St. | Bittle, Jake 4 | 1.76 | 0.5 | |
| South Dakota St. | 78 + 0 | 79.7 | ||
| Southern | 67 – 1 | 66.0 | ||
| St. Bonaventure | 78 + 0 | 78.0 | ||
| Stephen F. Austin | 81 + 4 | 85.0 | ||
| Stony Brook | Sekunda, Bryan 22 | 1.79 | -1.4 | |
| Stony Brook | 78 – 1 | 75.6 | ||
| Syracuse | 83 – 2 | 81.0 | ||
| TCU | Abron, Devonta 23 | 1.42 | 0.2 | |
| Temple | Lowe, Trey 11 | 1.04 | -1.0 | |
| Temple | 78 + 0 | 78.0 | ||
| Texas | Ridley, Cameron 55 | 4.90 | 3.1 | |
| Texas | 85 – 1 | 87.1 | ||
| Texas A&M | 88 + 2 | 90.0 | ||
| Texas Tech | 82 – 1 | 81.0 | ||
| Tulsa | 80 – 2 | 78.0 | ||
| UAB | 76 + 0 | 76.0 | ||
| UC Irvine | 78 + 0 | 78.0 | ||
| UNC Asheville | 73 + 1 | 74.0 | ||
| UNC Wilmington | 77 + 0 | 77.0 | ||
| USC | 83 – 2 | 81.0 | ||
| Utah | Ogbe, Kenneth 25 | 1.54 | 1.3 | |
| Utah | Montgomery, Austin 41 | 0.99 | 0.7 | |
| Utah | 87 + 2 | 91.0 | ||
| Valparaiso | Skara, David 10 | 1.83 | 0.4 | |
| Valparaiso | Walker, Tevonn 2 | 2.15 | 0.4 | |
| Valparaiso | 83 – 1 | 82.8 | ||
| Vanderbilt | Kornet, Luke 3 | 3.69 | 0.5 | |
| Vanderbilt | 88 + 1 | 89.5 | ||
| VCU | Johnson, Melvin 32 | 5.00 | -0.2 | |
| VCU | 84 + 2 | 85.8 | ||
| Villanova | Ochefu, Daniel 23 | 5.52 | 0.4 | |
| Villanova | 92 – 1 | 91.4 | ||
| Virginia | 92 + 1 | 93.0 | ||
| Weber St. | 74 + 0 | 74.0 | ||
| West Virginia | 92 + 2 | 94.0 | ||
| Wichita St. | 87 + 2 | 89.0 | ||
| Wisconsin | Hill, Jordan 11 | 0.60 | 0.1 | |
| Wisconsin | 84 – 2 | 82.1 | ||
| Xavier | 88 + 0 | 88.0 | ||
| Yale | Montague, Jack 4 | 2.59 | -1.6 | |
| Yale | 82 + 3 | 83.4 |
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