SIGN UP FOR THE BREITBART EMAIL NEWSLETTER

Injuries, Hot Streaks, and Ratings for All March Madness Teams

As prep for our March Madness predictions, we lay out the basics for the 85 teams with even a faint hope of being one of the 68 selected Sunday. This sheet gives each team’s Sagarin rating, a plus or minus for whether they finished the season hot or cold, and the Value Add of any key players who are injured for returning from injury based on Don’s Best report.

Michigan State’s rating is easily the best going into the tournament at 98.0. The next best teams once adjusting for injuries and how hot teams are leaves North Carolina at No. 2 at 95.5, followed by Kansas (95.2), West Virginia (94.0), Virginia (93.0), and Kentucky (92.5).

For example, both Akron and Alabama have a 78-point Value from Sagarin, and both finished the season cold enough for a minus 2, meaning their predictive rating if either received a surprise pick to the tournament would be a 76.0.

Arizona has two valuable players who missed part of the season (Kaleb Tarczewski and Allonzo Trier), who are therefore really more valuable per game than their Value Add rating in the database shows. With them back from injuries, Arizona is 1.8 points better than their rating based on their season results would indicated. However, a negative indicates a player who did play some is not expected to play — and in this case the absence of Elliott Pitts subtracts 0.2 from the team’s rating, so when we adjust Arizona’s Sagarin rating of 89 by those three player adjustments Arizona has a 90.6 rating heading into the tournament.

If Akron or Alabama received a surprise bid and played Arizona, Arizona would be projected to win by 14.6 points (90.6 rating minus 76.0).

Once the actual bids come out Sunday evening we will refer to these ratings as we fill in the projected brackets.

Possible Bid Sagarin, Hot or Cold Val/Gm Healthy/Out Total
Akron 78 – 2 76.0
Alabama 78 – 2 76.0
Arizona Tarczewski, Kaleb 35 4.69 1.1
Arizona Trier, Allonzo 11 3.69 0.7
Arizona Pitts, Elliott 24 0.95 -0.2
Arizona 89 + 0 90.6
Arkansas Little Rock 79 + 0 79.0
Austin Peay 67 + 2 69.0
Baylor 86 + 2 88.0
Buffalo Bearden, Lamonte 1 3.11 0.5
Buffalo 74 + 1 75.5
Butler Lewis, Tyler 1 1.99 0.3
Butler 86 + 1 87.3
BYU Toolson, Jake 15 0.44 -0.1
BYU 84 + 0 83.9
Cal St. Bakersfield Airington, Jaylin 11 2.66 0.7
Cal St. Bakersfield Mays, Kevin 10 4.66 0.6
Cal St. Bakersfield 75 + 1 77.3
California Wallace, Tyrone 3 4.56 0.6
California 86 + 2 88.6
Chattanooga Jones, Casey 24 0.60 -0.1
Chattanooga 77 + 0 76.9
Cincinnati 85 + 0 85.0
Colorado 82 + 1 83.0
Connecticut Brimah, Amida 35 3.52 1.2
Connecticut 86 + 2 89.2
Dayton Pierre, Dyshawn 21 4.97 1.8
Dayton Pollard, Kendall 25 1.75 0.3
Dayton 83 – 2 83.1
Duke Jefferson, Amile 21 4.91 -1.5
Duke 89 – 2 85.5
Fairleigh Dickinson 64 + 0 64.0
Florida 85 – 1 84.0
Florida Gulf Coast Morant, Demetris 21 0.74 0.2
Florida Gulf Coast 70 + 2 72.2
Fresno St. Jones, Torren 24 2.38 -1.5
Fresno St. 76 + 2 76.5
George Washington 80 + 0 80.0
Georgia 80 + 1 81.0
Gonzaga Karnowski, Przemek 24 1.53 -0.3
Gonzaga 87 + 1 87.7
Green Bay 74 + 2 76.0
Hampton Chievous, Quinton 3 4.39 1.0
Hampton Pressley, Jervon 30 0.47 0.1
Hampton 65 + 0 66.1
Hawaii Valdes, Aaron 32 4.26 1.0
Hawaii Smith, Quincy 11 1.71 0.2
Hawaii Fleming, Isaac 0 2.60 -1.8
Hawaii 80 + 0 79.3
Hofstra Nichols, Malik 0 0.96 -0.6
Hofstra 77 + 0 76.4
Holy Cross 64 + 0 64.0
Indiana Johnson, Robert 4 2.54 0.2
Indiana Blackmon, James 1 4.69 -2.0
Indiana 89 + 2 89.2
Iona English, AJ 5 7.18 1.0
Iona Casimir, Schadrac 4 0.82 -0.1
Iona 77 + 2 79.9
Iowa Jones, Dale 1 0.45 -0.1
Iowa 88 – 2 85.9
Iowa St. Mitrou-Long, Nazareth 15 0.69 -0.2
Iowa St. Morris, Monte 11 7.38 -0.2
Iowa St. 88 + 0 87.6
Kansas Diallo, Cheick 13 0.93 0.2
Kansas 93 + 2 95.2
Kentucky Poythress, Alex 22 3.90 0.5
Kentucky 90 + 2 92.5
Maryland 87 – 2 85.0
Memphis Woodson, Avery 3 3.17 -0.1
Miami FL 89 + 0 89.0
Michigan Albrecht, Spike 2 0.44 -0.1
Michigan LeVert, Caris 23 8.03 -3.7
Michigan 84 + 0 80.2
Michigan St. Valentine, Denzil 45 10.40 1.7
Michigan St. Goins, Kenny 25 1.26 0.2
Michigan St. Nairn, Lourawls 11 0.39 0.1
Michigan St. 93 + 3 98.0
Middle Tennessee Potts, Giddy 20 6.75 1.6
Middle Tennessee Simpson, Edward 11 0.42 -0.4
Middle Tennessee Ivory, Jacob 5 0.81 -0.4
Middle Tennessee 75 + 2 77.8
Monmouth 79 – 1 78.0
Montana 73 + 0 73.0
North Carolina Meeks, Kennedy 3 3.80 0.8
North Carolina Paige, Marcus 5 4.07 0.7
North Carolina 92 + 2 95.5
Northern Iowa 80 + 3 83.0
Notre Dame 84 + 1 85.0
Oklahoma 90 + 0 90.0
Oregon 87 + 3 90.0
Oregon St. Tinkle, Tres 3 5.36 -4.6
Oregon St. 81 + 0 76.4
Pittsburgh 85 + 0 85.0
Princeton 80 – 1 79.0
Providence 82 + 2 84.0
Purdue 90 + 2 92.0
Saint Joseph’s Ndao, Papa 12 1.45 0.2
Saint Joseph’s 82 – 1 81.2
Saint Mary’s 85 + 1 86.0
San Diego St. 83 + 2 85.0
Seton Hall 84 + 3 87.0
South Carolina Carrera, Michael 24 5.73 0.2
South Carolina 82 – 1 81.2
South Dakota St. Marshall, George 11 5.35 1.2
South Dakota St. Bittle, Jake 4 1.76 0.5
South Dakota St. 78 + 0 79.7
Southern 67 – 1 66.0
St. Bonaventure 78 + 0 78.0
Stephen F. Austin 81 + 4 85.0
Stony Brook Sekunda, Bryan 22 1.79 -1.4
Stony Brook 78 – 1 75.6
Syracuse 83 – 2 81.0
TCU Abron, Devonta 23 1.42 0.2
Temple Lowe, Trey 11 1.04 -1.0
Temple 78 + 0 78.0
Texas Ridley, Cameron 55 4.90 3.1
Texas 85 – 1 87.1
Texas A&M 88 + 2 90.0
Texas Tech 82 – 1 81.0
Tulsa 80 – 2 78.0
UAB 76 + 0 76.0
UC Irvine 78 + 0 78.0
UNC Asheville 73 + 1 74.0
UNC Wilmington 77 + 0 77.0
USC 83 – 2 81.0
Utah Ogbe, Kenneth 25 1.54 1.3
Utah Montgomery, Austin 41 0.99 0.7
Utah 87 + 2 91.0
Valparaiso Skara, David 10 1.83 0.4
Valparaiso Walker, Tevonn 2 2.15 0.4
Valparaiso 83 – 1 82.8
Vanderbilt Kornet, Luke 3 3.69 0.5
Vanderbilt 88 + 1 89.5
VCU Johnson, Melvin 32 5.00 -0.2
VCU 84 + 2 85.8
Villanova Ochefu, Daniel 23 5.52 0.4
Villanova 92 – 1 91.4
Virginia 92 + 1 93.0
Weber St. 74 + 0 74.0
West Virginia 92 + 2 94.0
Wichita St. 87 + 2 89.0
Wisconsin Hill, Jordan 11 0.60 0.1
Wisconsin 84 – 2 82.1
Xavier 88 + 0 88.0
Yale Montague, Jack 4 2.59 -1.6
Yale 82 + 3 83.4

P.S. DO YOU WANT MORE ARTICLES
LIKE THIS ONE DELIVERED RIGHT TO YOUR INBOX?
SIGN UP FOR THE DAILY BREITBART NEWSLETTER.


Comment count on this article reflects comments made on Breitbart.com and Facebook. Visit Breitbart's Facebook Page.

SIGN UP FOR THE OFFICIAL
BREITBART EMAIL NEWSLETTER

GET TODAY'S TOP NEWS DELIVERED RIGHT TO YOUR INBOX

I don't want to get today's top news.

x