Poll: Donald Trump at 48 Percent Among GOP Voters, Counting First and Second-Choice Votes

Isaac Brekken/Getty Images
Isaac Brekken/Getty Images

Donald Trump gets 48 percent of the GOP’s primary vote, counting first and second choices, according to the latest large-scale poll by Morning Consult.

That’s three points short of a majority, and an almost-sure presidential nomination. The score include 34 percent in first-choice votes, and 14 percent in second-choice votes.

Ben Carson’s first and second-choice votes push him up to 37 percent. His second-choice votes likely include many of Trump’s supporters.

In contrast, the total of Jeb Bush’s first and second-choice votes adds up to 23 percent. Sen. Marco Rubio’s total reaches 12 percent.  Sen. Ted Cruz reaches 11 percent, while Carly Fiorina climbs to 14 percent.

The Oct. 8 to Oct. 12 poll included a large panel of 2002 registered voters. Ten of those respondents backed Sen. Lindsey Graham as their first or second choice. That puts him one vote ahead of former Gov. Pataki, who was supported by nine people, or 0.5 percent of the poll.

However, the panel may have been skewed pro-GOP because it also gave President Barack Obama a lower-than-usual approval rate of 39 percent.